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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Flat (10 units)payout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-3598u
ROI
-28.6%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
359.9%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Flat (10 units)

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-57u
period 24top-up-96u
period 23top-up-156u
period 22top-up-228u
period 21top-up-206u
period 20top-up-24u
period 19top-up-265u
period 18top-up-150u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3333-28.8%333.3%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3598-28.6%359.9%Select
Martingale93461%-5999-29.4%599.9%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6187-29.1%618.8%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12537-29.8%1253.9%Select
10% of bankroll125962%-18427-31.1%1842.9%Select
Quarter Kelly4918%-18886-86.5%1888.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0210won+0-2598
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0110won+0-2599
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-2599
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0010lost-10-2599
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0110won+0-2589
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1510won+1-2589
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0110won+0-2590
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-2590
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0210won+0-2591
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0610won+1-2591
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0010lost-10-2591
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0010lost-10-2581
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0010lost-10-2571
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0210won+0-2561
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6010lost-10-2562
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2210won+2-2552
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0310won+0-2554
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0310won+0-2554
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6010lost-10-2554
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3010lost-10-2544
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0110won+0-2534
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5010won+15-2534
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1510won+12-2549
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0010lost-10-2561
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2010lost-10-2551
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0110won+0-2541
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0310won+0-2541
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-2541
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-2531
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5010lost-10-2531
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0010won+10-2521
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0110won+0-2531
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3510won+4-2532
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-2535
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0010lost-10-2535
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0010lost-10-2525
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0010lost-10-2515
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamStray Team1.0210won+0-2505
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0010lost-10-2505
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0010lost-10-2495
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6010lost-10-2485
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5010lost-10-2475
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports1.9210won+9-2465
21.07.26Team Lynx – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Lynx1.5210lost-10-2475
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0010lost-10-2465
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.2510won+2-2455
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0010lost-10-2457
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-2447
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.1210won+1-2447
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingBETBOOM Team1.0310won+0-2448
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.0410won+0-2449
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingTeam Liquid1.0110won+0-2449
12.07.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0810won+1-2449
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9010lost-10-2450
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0210won+0-2440
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-2440
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0210won+0-2440
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleTeam Yandex1.0110won+0-2440
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.0110won+0-2441
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-2441
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.