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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-6045u
ROI
-29.6%
win rate
61%
bets
934
drawdown
604.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Martingale

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19top-up-1000u
period 18top-up-243u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
1% of bankroll125962%-3351-29%335.2%Select
Flat (10 units)125962%-3622-28.8%362.3%Select
Martingale93461%-6045-29.6%604.5%Select
2% of bankroll125962%-6215-29.3%621.6%Select
5% of bankroll125962%-12561-30.1%1256.3%Select
10% of bankroll125962%-18411-31.4%1841.3%Select
Quarter Kelly4898%-18852-87.5%1885.2%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 934, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
04.02.26Team Liquid – MOUZTeam Liquid15.0071lost-71-5045
04.02.26Inner Circle – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy11.00160lost-160-4974
04.02.26Heroic – Team SpiritTeam Spirit15.0080lost-80-4814
04.02.26Team Falcons – Team LiquidTeam Falcons1.6240lost-40-4734
03.02.26Inner Circle – Team Spirit AcademyInner Circle1.2520lost-20-4694
03.02.26Team Spirit – MOUZTeam Spirit15.0010lost-10-4674
03.02.26Team Falcons – HeroicTeam Falcons1.03370won+11-4664
03.02.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Spirit15.00320lost-320-4675
03.02.26Rune Eaters – Team LynxRune Eaters8.50160lost-160-4355
03.02.26GamerLegion – HeroicHeroic1.4580lost-80-4195
03.02.26OG – Team LiquidTeam Liquid15.0040lost-40-4115
03.02.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons3.0020lost-20-4075
01.02.26Aurora Gaming – Team SpiritTeam Spirit15.0010lost-10-4055
01.02.26Xtreme Gaming – Yakult BrothersXtreme Gaming1.0210won+0-4045
31.01.26Xtreme Gaming – Vici GamingXtreme Gaming1.0110won+0-4045
30.01.26Power Rangers – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team1.4220won+8-4045
30.01.26Yakult Brothers – Game MasterGame Master14.0010lost-10-4054
30.01.26Team Spirit – strongboysTeam Spirit1.0110won+0-4044
30.01.26Xtreme Gaming – Team RefuserXtreme Gaming1.0220won+0-4044
29.01.26MOUZ – Team LiquidMOUZ9.0010lost-10-4044
28.01.26Pipsqueak+4 – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.3210won+3-4034
28.01.26Power Rangers – 1w Team1w Team1.0110won+0-4037
28.01.26Virtus.pro – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.02160won+3-4037
28.01.26Rune Eaters – hAze clanRune Eaters13.0080lost-80-4041
27.01.26Nigma Galaxy – Power RangersNigma Galaxy8.0040lost-40-3961
27.01.26Yakult Brothers – Team KukuysTeam Kukuys1.9020lost-20-3921
26.01.26Monkey Business – Yellow SubmarineMonkey Business1.7010lost-10-3901
26.01.261w Team – hAze clan1w Team1.0220won+0-3891
26.01.26Zero Tenacity – Pipsqueak+4Zero Tenacity13.0010lost-10-3891
25.01.26strongboys – Nemiga Gamingstrongboys1.0120won+0-3881
25.01.26Zero Tenacity – Virtus.proVirtus.pro10.0010lost-10-3881
24.01.26Aurora Gaming – strongboysAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-3871
24.01.26hAze clan – Rune EatersRune Eaters1.5210won+5-3871
24.01.26Zero Tenacity – Power RangersZero Tenacity1.0520won+1-3876
23.01.26Pipsqueak+4 – L1ga TeamL1ga Team2.0010lost-10-3877
22.01.261000 reasons – L1ga TeamL1ga Team1.0540won+2-3867
22.01.26AVULUS – Inner CircleAVULUS14.0020lost-20-3869
21.01.26Peru Rejects – HeroicHeroic9.0010lost-10-3849
20.01.26Amaru Gaming – HeroicHeroic1.0110won+0-3839
20.01.26Monkey Business – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-3840
20.01.26NoLogoJustMMR – Team LynxNoLogoJustMMR3.6010won+26-3840
19.01.26Rottweilas LATAM – GamerLegionGamerLegion1.0210won+0-3866
19.01.26Heroic – New GrowthHeroic1.0120won+0-3866
18.01.26Yellow Submarine – alohasquadalohasquad3.6010lost-10-3866
18.01.26Team Liquid – Nigma GalaxyTeam Liquid1.0110won+0-3856
18.01.26Virtus.pro – Pipsqueak+4Virtus.pro1.0220won+0-3856
18.01.26Natus Vincere – MOUZMOUZ15.0010lost-10-3857
18.01.26Aurora Gaming – 1w TeamAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-3847
17.01.26Execration – PlayTimeExecration1.4810won+5-3847
17.01.26Jackky and friends – DirebornJackky and friends1.0110won+0-3851
17.01.26REKONIX – Yangon GalacticosREKONIX1.0110won+0-3852
16.01.26BETBOOM Team – 1w TeamBETBOOM Team1.0120won+0-3852
16.01.26Aurora Gaming – Inner CircleAurora Gaming8.5010lost-10-3852
16.01.26Aurora Gaming – 4PiratesAurora Gaming1.0110won+0-3842
16.01.26alohasquad – Monkey BusinessMonkey Business1.0110won+0-3842
16.01.26Ivory – PlayTimePlayTime1.0310won+0-3842
15.01.26Zero Tenacity – Pasika UAZero Tenacity2.5040won+60-3842
13.01.26Rune Eaters – Inner CircleRune Eaters10.0020lost-20-3902
12.01.26Peru Rejects – HeroicHeroic8.0010lost-10-3882
11.01.26Looking for Org – HeroicHeroic1.0110won+0-3872
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.