Model favorite (Elo)
Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.
profit
-12561u
ROI
-30.1%
win rate
62%
bets
1259
drawdown
1256.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Model favorite (Elo)
💰
Stake size
5% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-221u
period 24top-up-394u
period 23top-up-555u
period 22top-up-693u
period 21top-up-656u
period 20top-up-125u
period 19top-up-744u
period 18top-up-546u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -3351 | -29% | 335.2% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1259 | 62% | -3622 | -28.8% | 362.3% | Select |
| Martingale | 934 | 61% | -6045 | -29.6% | 604.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -6215 | -29.3% | 621.6% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -12561 | -30.1% | 1256.3% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1259 | 62% | -18411 | -31.4% | 1841.3% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 489 | 8% | -18852 | -87.5% | 1885.2% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1259, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.02 | 39 | won | +1 | -11561 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -11562 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 39 | won | +0 | -11562 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -11563 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 41 | won | +0 | -11522 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 1.15 | 41 | won | +6 | -11522 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 1.01 | 41 | won | +0 | -11528 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 41 | won | +0 | -11529 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | Aurora Gaming | 1.02 | 41 | won | +1 | -11529 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | PARIVISION | 1.06 | 40 | won | +2 | -11530 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -11532 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 45 | lost | -45 | -11490 |
| 08.08.26 | Power Rangers – Team Syntax | Power Rangers | 1.01 | 45 | won | +0 | -11445 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | Zero Tenacity | 1.02 | 45 | won | +1 | -11445 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 47 | lost | -47 | -11446 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | Team Liquid | 1.22 | 47 | won | +10 | -11399 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Yakult Brothers | 1.03 | 46 | won | +1 | -11410 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.03 | 46 | won | +1 | -11411 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 49 | lost | -49 | -11412 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 51 | lost | -51 | -11363 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | PlayTime | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -11312 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | Team Liquid | 2.50 | 48 | won | +72 | -11313 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | Vici Gaming | 2.15 | 45 | won | +52 | -11384 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -11436 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 50 | lost | -50 | -11389 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Team avice | 1.01 | 50 | won | +1 | -11339 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 1.03 | 50 | won | +2 | -11339 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 32 | lost | -32 | -11341 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 1.01 | 32 | won | +0 | -11309 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 34 | lost | -34 | -11309 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | LGD Gaming | 2.00 | 32 | won | +32 | -11275 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.01 | 32 | won | +0 | -11307 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Ilbirs eSports | 1.35 | 31 | won | +11 | -11308 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Team Falcons | 1.01 | 31 | won | +0 | -11319 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 33 | lost | -33 | -11319 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -11286 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 37 | lost | -37 | -11251 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 1.02 | 37 | won | +1 | -11215 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -11215 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 41 | lost | -41 | -11177 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 43 | lost | -43 | -11136 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 45 | lost | -45 | -11094 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 1.92 | 43 | won | +39 | -11049 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 45 | lost | -45 | -11088 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -11043 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Zero Tenacity | 1.25 | 47 | won | +12 | -10995 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 49 | lost | -49 | -11007 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 49 | won | +0 | -10958 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.12 | 49 | won | +6 | -10958 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 1.03 | 49 | won | +1 | -10964 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 1.04 | 49 | won | +2 | -10966 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Team Liquid | 1.01 | 49 | won | +0 | -10968 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 1.08 | 49 | won | +4 | -10968 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 51 | lost | -51 | -10972 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 1.02 | 51 | won | +1 | -10921 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -10922 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 1.02 | 51 | won | +1 | -10922 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Team Yandex | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -10923 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -10924 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Spirit | 1.01 | 51 | won | +1 | -10924 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.