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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 2Martingalepayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-2198u
ROI
-37.4%
win rate
60%
bets
251
drawdown
219.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

Martingale

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2198-37.4%219.8%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6321-29.3%632.1%Select
Flat (10 units)254262%-7383-29%738.3%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10928-29.6%1092.9%Select
5% of bankroll254262%-18643-30.2%1864.4%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22964-30.7%2296.5%Select
Quarter Kelly9878%-23194-85.5%2319.4%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 251, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
16.11.24Blade breakers – Infinity EsportsBlade breakers12.00274lost-274-1198
16.11.24Team Daxao – Team CakeTeam Daxao1.62320lost-320-924
16.11.24DMS – Passion UADMS1.17160lost-160-604
16.11.24Team Golovach – Team Аналитика ОшибокTeam Аналитика Ошибок2.2580lost-80-444
16.11.24PuckChamp – Natus Vincere JuniorNatus Vincere Junior13.0040lost-40-364
16.11.24GoodWin Team – Team GolovachTeam Golovach4.4020lost-20-324
16.11.24Болгария – МьянмаБолгария1.8510lost-10-304
16.11.24Турция – АвстралияТурция1.0810won+1-294
16.11.24Монголия – СШАМонголия1.0110won+0-295
16.11.24Dragon Esports – Nemiga GamingDragon Esports1.4210won+4-295
16.11.24Titan – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers1.0210won+0-299
16.11.24Team Аналитика Ошибок – GoodWin TeamTeam Аналитика Ошибок1.8510won+8-299
16.11.24Zero Tenacity – PalianytsiaZero Tenacity1.0110won+0-308
16.11.24Blue Submarine – One MoveOne Move1.0120won+0-308
16.11.24Швеция – ФилиппиныШвеция9.0010lost-10-308
16.11.24Саудовская Аравия – ВенесуэлаСаудовская Аравия3.3010won+23-298
16.11.24Кыргызстан – АргентинаКыргызстан1.1340won+5-321
16.11.24Teamless – CastawakeTeamless12.0020lost-20-326
15.11.24Tundra Esports – AVULUSTundra Esports3.5010lost-10-306
15.11.24Gaimin Gladiators – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.0120won+0-296
15.11.24TiltedBoys – Mouth EsportsTiltedBoys1.6010lost-10-296
15.11.24Infinity Esports – FusionFusion1.0110won+0-286
15.11.24Team Liquid – MOUZTeam Liquid1.0140won+0-286
15.11.24L1ga Team – Team SecretTeam Secret12.0020lost-20-287
15.11.24Yakult Brothers – Xtreme GamingYakult Brothers6.0010lost-10-267
15.11.24AVULUS – PalianytsiaAVULUS1.0110won+0-257
15.11.241w Team – Blue Submarine1w Team1.0110won+0-257
15.11.24Gaozu – Spiky GamingGaozu1.0120won+0-257
15.11.24Aurora Gaming – CastawakeCastawake13.0010lost-10-257
14.11.24Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingZero Tenacity1.5820won+12-247
14.11.24Myth Avenue Gaming – Call911Call9113.6010lost-10-259
14.11.24Teamless – CastawakeTeamless1.0120won+0-249
13.11.24Team Secret – Dragon EsportsDragon Esports7.5010lost-10-249
10.11.24BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-239
08.11.24Looking for Org – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports1.0110won+0-239
07.11.24PARIVISION – Xtreme GamingPARIVISION1.2810won+3-239
06.11.24Xtreme Gaming – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.0120won+0-242
06.11.24PARIVISION – Tundra EsportsPARIVISION11.0010lost-10-242
05.11.24Team Liquid – Looking for OrgTeam Liquid1.0820won+2-232
05.11.24PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit10.0010lost-10-234
04.11.24Team Spirit – Looking for OrgTeam Spirit1.5520won+11-224
04.11.24PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION5.8010lost-10-235
04.11.24Team Falcons – Xtreme GamingTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-225
03.11.24Tundra Esports – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.1710won+2-225
02.11.24Team Falcons – Team LiquidTeam Falcons1.0240won+1-227
02.11.24Team Spirit – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports4.4020lost-20-227
01.11.24Xtreme Gaming – Looking for OrgXtreme Gaming1.8010lost-10-207
01.11.24Tundra Esports – BETBOOM TeamTundra Esports1.0120won+0-197
30.10.24BETBOOM Team – AVULUSAVULUS11.0010lost-10-198
30.10.24Tundra Esports – PalianytsiaTundra Esports1.0110won+0-188
30.10.24Team Falcons – Azure RayTeam Falcons1.0110won+0-188
30.10.24Team Spirit – HeroicTeam Spirit2.4010won+14-188
29.10.24Azure Ray – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.4520won+9-202
29.10.24Looking for Org – HeroicHeroic4.8010lost-10-211
29.10.24Team Falcons – Talon EsportsTeam Falcons1.0210won+0-201
29.10.24nouns – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1010won+1-201
28.10.24Talon Esports – Tundra EsportsTundra Esports1.0110won+0-202
28.10.24Palianytsia – Team SpiritTeam Spirit1.0310won+0-202
28.10.24Team Falcons – HeroicTeam Falcons1.0320won+1-202
28.10.24Talon Esports – Azure RayAzure Ray7.0010lost-10-203
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.