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Model favorite (Elo)

D2Dota 25% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Bets the Elo model's favorite — the team the model gives over 50% to win, regardless of odds. Pits the model's view against the market.

profit
-18634u
ROI
-30.2%
win rate
62%
bets
2542
drawdown
1863.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Model favorite (Elo)

💰
Stake size

5% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-525u
period 24top-up-400u
period 23top-up-711u
period 22top-up-922u
period 21top-up-870u
period 20top-up-562u
period 19top-up-858u
period 18top-up-887u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale25160%-2203-37.6%220.3%Select
1% of bankroll254262%-6319-29.3%631.9%Select
Flat (10 units)254262%-7380-29%738.1%Select
2% of bankroll254262%-10924-29.6%1092.5%Select
5% of bankroll254262%-18634-30.2%1863.5%Select
10% of bankroll254262%-22950-30.9%2295.1%Select
Quarter Kelly9828%-23176-86.3%2317.6%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2542, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0224won+0-17634
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamPARIVISION1.0124won+0-17634
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.0124won+0-17634
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.0025lost-25-17635
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0026lost-26-17610
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritPARIVISION1.0126won+0-17583
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming1.0126won+0-17584
15.08.261w Team – Team LiquidTeam Liquid1.1526won+4-17584
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy1.0126won+0-17588
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingLGD Gaming1.0226won+1-17588
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionTeam Falcons1.0126won+0-17588
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.0126won+0-17589
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.0027lost-27-17589
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.9826won+26-17562
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy1.1226won+3-17587
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionAurora Gaming1.0226won+1-17590
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResiliencePARIVISION1.0626won+2-17591
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0027lost-27-17592
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0029lost-29-17565
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0030lost-30-17537
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0032lost-32-17506
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereNatus Vincere1.0132won+0-17475
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0033lost-33-17475
08.08.26Power Rangers – Team SyntaxPower Rangers1.0133won+0-17442
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.0035lost-35-17442
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkZero Tenacity1.0235won+1-17407
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersPower Rangers1.0835won+3-17408
06.08.26No Hoodwink – Level UPNo Hoodwink1.6037lost-37-17410
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w TeamTeam Liquid1.2236won+8-17374
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersPlayTime1.0136won+0-17382
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0038lost-38-17382
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.0138won+0-17344
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersYakult Brothers1.0338won+1-17344
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResiliencePlayTime1.0638won+2-17345
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingTeam Liquid1.0338won+1-17348
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6040lost-40-17349
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG1.0140won+0-17309
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3042lost-42-17309
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0044lost-44-17267
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimePlayTime1.0144won+0-17223
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingTeam Liquid2.5041won+62-17223
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGVici Gaming2.1539won+45-17285
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0041lost-41-17330
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w TeamTeam Falcons1.0841won+3-17289
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0043lost-43-17292
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0045lost-45-17249
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0048lost-48-17204
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2050lost-50-17156
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionBETBOOM Team1.0150won+1-17106
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceTeam avice1.0150won+1-17106
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingBETBOOM Team1.0150won+1-17107
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience1.0350won+2-17107
31.07.26Xtreme Gaming – LGD GamingLGD Gaming1.9232lost-32-17109
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0033lost-33-17077
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity1.0133won+0-17044
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHGLYPH1.0133won+0-17044
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5035lost-35-17045
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionLGD Gaming2.0033won+33-17010
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming1.0133won+0-17043
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingIlbirs eSports1.3533won+11-17043
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Model favorite (Elo)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.