Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-24265u
ROI
-92.6%
win rate
4%
bets
1212
drawdown
2426.5%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-942u
period 24top-up-977u
period 23top-up-992u
period 22top-up-995u
period 21top-up-997u
period 20top-up-977u
period 19top-up-994u
period 18top-up-998u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -8648 | -88.9% | 864.8% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 1212 | 4% | -10715 | -88.4% | 1071.5% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -14201 | -89.5% | 1420.1% | Selected |
| 5% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -21626 | -91% | 2162.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 1212 | 4% | -23880 | -94.6% | 2388% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 1212 | 4% | -24265 | -92.6% | 2426.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1212, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -23265 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -23259 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -23252 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -23244 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -23235 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 11 | lost | -11 | -23225 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 12 | lost | -12 | -23214 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -23202 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 15 | lost | -15 | -23188 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -23173 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -23157 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -23138 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -23118 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -23095 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 28 | lost | -28 | -23069 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 31 | lost | -31 | -23041 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 35 | lost | -35 | -23010 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 39 | lost | -39 | -22975 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 43 | lost | -43 | -22936 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 48 | lost | -48 | -22893 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 53 | lost | -53 | -22845 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 59 | lost | -59 | -22792 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 66 | lost | -66 | -22733 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 73 | lost | -73 | -22667 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 81 | lost | -81 | -22595 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 90 | lost | -90 | -22514 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 100 | lost | -100 | -22424 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22324 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22321 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22318 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 3 | lost | -3 | -22315 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22312 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 4 | lost | -4 | -22308 |
| 30.07.26 | Team Falcons – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22304 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Nigma Galaxy | 13.00 | 5 | lost | -5 | -22299 |
| 30.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – 1w Team | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22294 |
| 29.07.26 | Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Rostik Team | 10.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -22288 |
| 29.07.26 | NS Team – Stray Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -22281 |
| 28.07.26 | YBN Team – Team avice | YBN Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -22274 |
| 28.07.26 | NS Team – TpaBoMaH Team | NS Team | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -22266 |
| 27.07.26 | NS Team – Rostik Team | Rostik Team | 3.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -22257 |
| 24.07.26 | Nemiga Gaming – Level UP | Nemiga Gaming | 7.50 | 11 | lost | -11 | -22248 |
| 21.07.26 | Team Lynx – Team Spirit Academy | Team Lynx | 1.52 | 12 | lost | -12 | -22237 |
| 20.07.26 | Level UP – Ilbirs eSports | Ilbirs eSports | 10.00 | 14 | lost | -14 | -22225 |
| 20.07.26 | Zero Tenacity – Nemiga Gaming | Nemiga Gaming | 3.60 | 15 | lost | -15 | -22211 |
| 20.07.26 | Team Lynx – PuckChamp | Team Lynx | 10.00 | 17 | lost | -17 | -22196 |
| 19.07.26 | Vici Gaming – Team Yandex | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 19 | lost | -19 | -22179 |
| 18.07.26 | Team Yandex – PARIVISION | Team Yandex | 6.00 | 21 | lost | -21 | -22161 |
| 18.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 23 | lost | -23 | -22140 |
| 17.07.26 | Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM Team | Nigma Galaxy | 15.00 | 25 | lost | -25 | -22117 |
| 14.07.26 | Team Liquid – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 28 | lost | -28 | -22092 |
| 12.07.26 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 31 | lost | -31 | -22064 |
| 12.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 2.90 | 35 | lost | -35 | -22032 |
| 11.07.26 | PlayTime – Nigma Galaxy | PlayTime | 5.80 | 39 | lost | -39 | -21997 |
| 10.07.26 | REKONIX – Team Spirit | REKONIX | 15.00 | 43 | lost | -43 | -21959 |
| 10.07.26 | Team Nemesis – Vici Gaming | Team Nemesis | 13.00 | 48 | lost | -48 | -21916 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Yandex – Inner Circle | Inner Circle | 15.00 | 53 | lost | -53 | -21868 |
| 08.07.26 | Vici Gaming – PARIVISION | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 59 | lost | -59 | -21815 |
| 08.07.26 | Team Spirit – Team Nemesis | Team Nemesis | 15.00 | 66 | lost | -66 | -21756 |
| 08.07.26 | GamerLegion – Xtreme Gaming | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 73 | lost | -73 | -21690 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.