Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-14965u
ROI
-89.7%
win rate
4%
bets
2819
drawdown
1479.3%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
10% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 9 | 11% | -1000 | -95.7% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 154 | 3% | -1318 | -85.8% | 131.7% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2819 | 4% | -14965 | -89.7% | 1479.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 4834 | 4% | -19796 | -88% | 1975.1% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4834 | 4% | -23504 | -88.3% | 2340.3% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4834 | 4% | -24787 | -88.9% | 2456.6% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 4834 | 4% | -24965 | -90.9% | 2496.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2819, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29.10.25 | Team Spirit – BETBOOM Team | Team Spirit | 3.40 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 29.10.25 | Team Yandex – MOUZ | MOUZ | 2.40 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 28.10.25 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 28.10.25 | Team Spirit – Heroic | Heroic | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 28.10.25 | Team Falcons – MOUZ | Team Falcons | 3.60 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 28.10.25 | Tundra Esports – Team Yandex | Tundra Esports | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 27.10.25 | Heroic – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 27.10.25 | Aurora Gaming – MOUZ | Aurora Gaming | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 27.10.25 | Team Liquid – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 10.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | Aurora Gaming – Team Yandex | Aurora Gaming | 5.30 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | Team Cobra – Vici Gaming | Team Cobra | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | Heroic – Runa Team | Runa Team | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | BETBOOM Team – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 2.90 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | Team Yandex – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | Team Liquid – Tundra Esports | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | Nigma Galaxy – MOUZ | Nigma Galaxy | 8.50 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 26.10.25 | 1w Team – Pipsqueak+4 | Pipsqueak+4 | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Team Spirit – Aurora Gaming | Aurora Gaming | 12.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | PARIVISION – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Pipsqueak+4 – Passion UA | Passion UA | 10.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Team Falcons – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 4.80 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | 1w Team – Team Yandex | 1w Team | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | MOUZ – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Tundra Esports – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 14.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Virtus.pro – Runa Team | Virtus.pro | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 25.10.25 | Heroic – Team Yandex | Heroic | 10.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Team Falcons – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | MOUZ – Team Cobra | MOUZ | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Team Spirit – Heroic | Heroic | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Kalmychata – Passion UA | Kalmychata | 11.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Team Yandex – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | eSpoiled – Pipsqueak+4 | eSpoiled | 11.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | PARIVISION – Aurora Gaming | PARIVISION | 13.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Nigma Galaxy – Runa Team | Runa Team | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Vici Gaming – Virtus.pro | Virtus.pro | 7.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 24.10.25 | Tundra Esports – BETBOOM Team | Tundra Esports | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Team Spirit – Team Yandex | Team Yandex | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Team Falcons – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Passion UA – 4Pirates | 4Pirates | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | PARIVISION – Nigma Galaxy | Nigma Galaxy | 8.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Tundra Esports – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 13.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Team Tea – Pipsqueak+4 | Team Tea | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | BETBOOM Team – Virtus.pro | Virtus.pro | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Team Liquid – Team Cobra | Team Cobra | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | eSpoiled – Team Yandex | eSpoiled | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Aurora Gaming – Runa Team | Runa Team | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 23.10.25 | Heroic – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 22.10.25 | 1w Team – Kalmychata | Kalmychata | 2.80 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 22.10.25 | Peru Rejects – 4Pirates | Peru Rejects | 2.90 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 22.10.25 | Passion UA – Zero Tenacity | Passion UA | 2.70 | 0 | won | +0 | -13965 |
| 21.10.25 | Pipsqueak+4 – Roar Gaming | Roar Gaming | 13.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 21.10.25 | Team Tea – OG | OG | 9.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 21.10.25 | Team Yandex – Peru Rejects | Peru Rejects | 12.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 20.10.25 | Passion UA – eSpoiled | Passion UA | 12.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 20.10.25 | Pipsqueak+4 – Kalmychata | Pipsqueak+4 | 11.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 20.10.25 | 1w Team – Team Tea | Team Tea | 12.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 19.10.25 | Team Spirit – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 19.10.25 | Heroic – Team Liquid | Team Liquid | 3.60 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
| 19.10.25 | MOUZ – Team Aureus | Team Aureus | 7.00 | 0 | lost | -0 | -13965 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.