Value: edge ≥ 5%
Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.
profit
-14188u
ROI
-88.8%
win rate
4%
bets
2449
drawdown
1418.8%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value: edge ≥ 5%
💰
Stake size
1% of bankroll
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-395u
period 24top-up-393u
period 23top-up-532u
period 22top-up-722u
period 21top-up-609u
period 20top-up-590u
period 19top-up-600u
period 18top-up-713u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 7 | 0% | -1000 | -100% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 517 | 5% | -4366 | -84.5% | 436.6% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -14188 | -88.8% | 1418.8% | Selected |
| 2% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -20015 | -89.1% | 2001.5% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24214 | -89.8% | 2421.4% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 2449 | 4% | -24820 | -91.4% | 2482% | Select |
| 10% of bankroll | 2449 | 4% | -24864 | -90% | 2486.4% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2449, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Yandex | Team Liquid | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13188 |
| 20.08.26 | PARIVISION – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13182 |
| 16.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Team Yandex | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13175 |
| 15.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | OG | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13169 |
| 15.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 11.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13163 |
| 15.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Spirit | Team Spirit | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13157 |
| 15.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – Aurora Gaming | BETBOOM Team | 15.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -13150 |
| 15.08.26 | 1w Team – Team Liquid | 1w Team | 5.30 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13144 |
| 15.08.26 | Nigma Galaxy – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13137 |
| 15.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Xtreme Gaming | Xtreme Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13130 |
| 15.08.26 | Team Falcons – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13124 |
| 14.08.26 | LGD Gaming – Nigma Galaxy | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13117 |
| 14.08.26 | Team Yandex – Team Liquid | Team Yandex | 4.80 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13110 |
| 13.08.26 | Team Falcons – PARIVISION | PARIVISION | 1.98 | 7 | won | +7 | -13103 |
| 13.08.26 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 5.80 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13110 |
| 13.08.26 | Aurora Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13103 |
| 13.08.26 | PARIVISION – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13096 |
| 12.08.26 | Level UP – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 4.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13089 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13082 |
| 11.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Zero Tenacity | Yellow Submarine | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13075 |
| 11.08.26 | Rune Eaters – MOUZ | MOUZ | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13068 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters – Natus Vincere | Rune Eaters | 15.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13060 |
| 10.08.26 | Rune Eaters Arise – No Hoodwink | Rune Eaters Arise | 12.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -13053 |
| 08.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – No Hoodwink | Ilbirs eSports | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13045 |
| 07.08.26 | Team Jenz – Nemiga Gaming | Team Jenz | 14.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13038 |
| 07.08.26 | Zero Tenacity – No Hoodwink | No Hoodwink | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13030 |
| 06.08.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Power Rangers | Ilbirs eSports | 6.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13023 |
| 06.08.26 | No Hoodwink – Level UP | No Hoodwink | 1.60 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13015 |
| 05.08.26 | Team Liquid – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -13007 |
| 05.08.26 | PlayTime – Yakult Brothers | Yakult Brothers | 15.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12999 |
| 05.08.26 | 1w Team – BETBOOM Team | BETBOOM Team | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12991 |
| 04.08.26 | Team Liquid – Team Falcons | Team Liquid | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12983 |
| 04.08.26 | Yakult Brothers – Rune Eaters | Rune Eaters | 12.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12975 |
| 04.08.26 | PlayTime – Team Resilience | Team Resilience | 13.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12966 |
| 03.08.26 | Team Liquid – Vici Gaming | Vici Gaming | 10.00 | 8 | lost | -8 | -12958 |
| 03.08.26 | Vici Gaming – Yakult Brothers | Vici Gaming | 3.60 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12950 |
| 03.08.26 | OG – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12941 |
| 03.08.26 | Xtreme Gaming – Team Resilience | Xtreme Gaming | 3.30 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12933 |
| 03.08.26 | LGD Gaming – 1w Team | LGD Gaming | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12924 |
| 03.08.26 | GLYPH – PlayTime | GLYPH | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12915 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Liquid – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 5.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12906 |
| 02.08.26 | Vici Gaming – OG | OG | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12897 |
| 02.08.26 | TpaBoMaH Team – Stray Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12888 |
| 02.08.26 | Team Falcons – 1w Team | 1w Team | 15.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12879 |
| 02.08.26 | Yellow Submarine – Team Resilience | Yellow Submarine | 14.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12870 |
| 01.08.26 | Stray Team – TpaBoMaH Team | Stray Team | 13.00 | 9 | lost | -9 | -12860 |
| 01.08.26 | GLYPH – Zero Tenacity | Zero Tenacity | 6.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12851 |
| 01.08.26 | NS Team – VooDooSh Team | VooDooSh Team | 4.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12842 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 15.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12832 |
| 01.08.26 | Daxak Team – Team avice | Daxak Team | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12822 |
| 01.08.26 | BETBOOM Team – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12812 |
| 01.08.26 | Midas Club – Team Resilience | Midas Club | 14.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12803 |
| 31.07.26 | Xtreme Gaming – LGD Gaming | LGD Gaming | 1.92 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12793 |
| 31.07.26 | BETBOOM Team – Team Liquid | BETBOOM Team | 11.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12786 |
| 31.07.26 | Yakult Brothers – Zero Tenacity | Yakult Brothers | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12780 |
| 31.07.26 | Enjoy Boys – GLYPH | Enjoy Boys | 14.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12774 |
| 31.07.26 | L1ga Team – REKONIX | L1ga Team | 8.50 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12768 |
| 31.07.26 | LGD Gaming – GamerLegion | GamerLegion | 7.00 | 6 | lost | -6 | -12761 |
| 31.07.26 | Amaru Gaming – Vici Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 11.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12755 |
| 30.07.26 | Ilbirs eSports – Amaru Gaming | Amaru Gaming | 3.00 | 7 | lost | -7 | -12748 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.