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Value: edge ≥ 5%

D2Dota 21% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value bets: only bet when odds × model probability − 1 ≥ 5%, i.e. the market underrates the outcome. The core "value" strategy: positive expected value matters more than the hit rate.

profit
-19796u
ROI
-88%
win rate
4%
bets
4834
drawdown
1975.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value: edge ≥ 5%

💰
Stake size

1% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-683u
period 24top-up-628u
period 23top-up-787u
period 22top-up-891u
period 21top-up-833u
period 20top-up-787u
period 19top-up-880u
period 18top-up-904u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale911%-1000-95.7%100%Select
Flat (10 units)1543%-1318-85.8%131.7%Select
10% of bankroll28194%-14965-89.7%1479.3%Select
1% of bankroll48344%-19796-88%1975.1%Select
2% of bankroll48344%-23504-88.3%2340.3%Select
5% of bankroll48344%-24787-88.9%2456.6%Select
Quarter Kelly48344%-24965-90.9%2496.5%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 4834, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Team FalconsTeam Falcons1.903lost-3-18796
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.003lost-3-18792
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.003lost-3-18789
20.08.261w Team – Team Spirit1w Team15.003lost-3-18786
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.003lost-3-18783
16.08.26GamerLegion – 1w TeamGamerLegion15.003lost-3-18779
16.08.26Team Spirit – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience14.003lost-3-18776
16.08.26Aurora Gaming – BETBOOM TeamAurora Gaming9.003lost-3-18772
16.08.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.003lost-3-18769
15.08.26Team Spirit – Nigma GalaxyTeam Spirit4.804lost-4-18766
15.08.261w Team – Team YandexTeam Yandex1.854lost-4-18762
15.08.26Team Liquid – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming6.004lost-4-18759
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Team FalconsBETBOOM Team2.704lost-4-18755
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.004lost-4-18751
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Vici GamingVici Gaming14.004lost-4-18748
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.004lost-4-18744
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.004lost-4-18740
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.004lost-4-18736
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.304lost-4-18733
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.004lost-4-18729
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.004lost-4-18725
15.08.26Team Resilience – Team YandexTeam Resilience15.004lost-4-18721
15.08.26OG – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.004lost-4-18717
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.004lost-4-18713
14.08.26Team Yandex – Aurora GamingTeam Yandex5.304lost-4-18709
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.004lost-4-18705
14.08.26Team Spirit – Team LiquidTeam Liquid11.004lost-4-18701
14.08.26GamerLegion – Vici GamingGamerLegion15.004lost-4-18697
14.08.26Team Resilience – OGOG3.404lost-4-18692
14.08.261w Team – Team FalconsTeam Falcons6.604lost-4-18688
14.08.26BETBOOM Team – PARIVISIONBETBOOM Team9.004lost-4-18684
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.004lost-4-18680
14.08.26Team Spirit – Aurora GamingAurora Gaming4.204lost-4-18675
14.08.26L1ga Team – Vici GamingL1ga Team4.204lost-4-18671
14.08.26Xtreme Gaming – GamerLegionXtreme Gaming15.005lost-5-18666
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.805lost-5-18662
13.08.26Team Falcons – PARIVISIONPARIVISION1.985won+4-18657
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.805lost-5-18662
13.08.26Team Resilience – LGD GamingTeam Resilience8.505lost-5-18657
13.08.26BETBOOM Team – 1w Team1w Team4.405lost-5-18653
13.08.26Team Yandex – L1ga TeamL1ga Team15.005lost-5-18648
13.08.26Team Spirit – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming14.005lost-5-18643
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.005lost-5-18638
13.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.005lost-5-18634
13.08.261w Team – Nigma GalaxyNigma Galaxy15.005lost-5-18629
13.08.26Team Falcons – LGD GamingLGD Gaming4.505lost-5-18624
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.005lost-5-18619
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.005lost-5-18614
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.005lost-5-18609
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.005lost-5-18604
11.08.26Level UP – Team Spirit AcademyTeam Spirit Academy5.305lost-5-18599
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.005lost-5-18593
11.08.26Team Spirit Academy – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.005lost-5-18588
11.08.26Level UP – Natus VincereLevel UP15.005lost-5-18583
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.005lost-5-18578
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.005lost-5-18572
10.08.26Yellow Submarine – Level UPYellow Submarine14.006lost-6-18567
10.08.26Team Lynx – Rune Eaters AriseTeam Lynx11.006lost-6-18561
10.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Zero TenacityIlbirs eSports13.006lost-6-18556
10.08.26Power Rangers – MOUZPower Rangers7.006lost-6-18550
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Value: edge ≥ 5%" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.