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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-14126u
ROI
-90.1%
win rate
3%
bets
1194
drawdown
1412.6%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-409u
period 24top-up-507u
period 23top-up-593u
period 22top-up-632u
period 21top-up-665u
period 20top-up-517u
period 19top-up-612u
period 18top-up-678u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
1% of bankroll11943%-8591-89.5%859.1%Select
Flat (10 units)11943%-10628-89%1062.9%Select
2% of bankroll11943%-14126-90.1%1412.6%Selected
5% of bankroll11943%-21569-91.7%2156.9%Select
Quarter Kelly11943%-23859-95.3%2385.9%Select
10% of bankroll11943%-24247-93.4%2424.7%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 1194, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.0012lost-12-13126
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.0012lost-12-13114
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.0013lost-13-13101
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.0013lost-13-13089
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.0013lost-13-13076
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.3013lost-13-13063
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0014lost-14-13050
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0014lost-14-13036
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0014lost-14-13022
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0014lost-14-13008
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0015lost-15-12993
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0015lost-15-12979
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0015lost-15-12964
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0016lost-16-12948
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0016lost-16-12932
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0016lost-16-12916
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0017lost-17-12900
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6017lost-17-12883
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3017lost-17-12866
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0018lost-18-12849
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0018lost-18-12831
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0018lost-18-12813
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0019lost-19-12795
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2019lost-19-12776
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0020lost-20-12757
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0020lost-20-12737
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.0010lost-10-12717
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.0010lost-10-12707
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.5010lost-10-12697
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.0011lost-11-12686
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.0011lost-11-12676
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.0011lost-11-12665
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0011lost-11-12654
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.0012lost-12-12642
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – 1w TeamNigma Galaxy14.0012lost-12-12631
29.07.26Rostik Team – TpaBoMaH TeamRostik Team10.0012lost-12-12619
29.07.26NS Team – Stray TeamNS Team13.0012lost-12-12607
28.07.26YBN Team – Team aviceYBN Team13.0013lost-13-12594
28.07.26NS Team – TpaBoMaH TeamNS Team13.0013lost-13-12582
27.07.26NS Team – Rostik TeamRostik Team3.6013lost-13-12569
24.07.26Nemiga Gaming – Level UPNemiga Gaming7.5013lost-13-12556
20.07.26Level UP – Ilbirs eSportsIlbirs eSports10.0014lost-14-12543
20.07.26Zero Tenacity – Nemiga GamingNemiga Gaming3.6014lost-14-12529
20.07.26Team Lynx – PuckChampTeam Lynx10.0014lost-14-12515
19.07.26Vici Gaming – Team YandexVici Gaming15.0014lost-14-12501
18.07.26Team Yandex – PARIVISIONTeam Yandex6.0015lost-15-12486
18.07.26BETBOOM Team – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.0015lost-15-12472
17.07.26Nigma Galaxy – BETBOOM TeamNigma Galaxy15.0015lost-15-12457
14.07.26Team Liquid – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.0016lost-16-12441
12.07.261w Team – Team Yandex1w Team15.0016lost-16-12426
12.07.26REKONIX – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis2.9016lost-16-12410
11.07.26PlayTime – Nigma GalaxyPlayTime5.8017lost-17-12393
10.07.26REKONIX – Team SpiritREKONIX15.0017lost-17-12377
10.07.26Team Nemesis – Vici GamingTeam Nemesis13.0017lost-17-12360
08.07.26Team Yandex – Inner CircleInner Circle15.0018lost-18-12342
08.07.26Vici Gaming – PARIVISIONVici Gaming15.0018lost-18-12324
08.07.26Team Spirit – Team NemesisTeam Nemesis15.0018lost-18-12306
08.07.26GamerLegion – Xtreme GamingGamerLegion15.0019lost-19-12288
08.07.26Poor Rangers – BETBOOM TeamPoor Rangers15.0019lost-19-12269
07.07.26Inner Circle – 1w TeamInner Circle15.0020lost-20-12250
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Strategy selected ✓
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.