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Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

D2Dota 22% of bankrollpayout: monthly

Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.

profit
-19991u
ROI
-90.1%
win rate
3%
bets
2417
drawdown
1999.1%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
start
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on

Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)

💰
Stake size

2% of bankroll

🔁
Return to start

At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.

📊
Odds

Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.

Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25top-up-636u
period 24top-up-620u
period 23top-up-785u
period 22top-up-922u
period 21top-up-846u
period 20top-up-834u
period 19top-up-843u
period 18top-up-916u
Stake sizes
StakeBetsHitProfitROIDrawdownPick
Martingale70%-1000-100%100%Select
Flat (10 units)5145%-4371-85.1%437.1%Select
1% of bankroll24173%-14163-89.7%1416.3%Select
2% of bankroll24173%-19991-90.1%1999.1%Select
5% of bankroll24173%-24203-90.8%2420.3%Select
Quarter Kelly24173%-24817-92%2481.7%Selected
10% of bankroll24173%-24863-90.9%2486.3%Select
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 2417, showing the last 60.
AllRandom 50%Random 25%Random 10%
DateMatchBet onOddsStakeResult±BankBank
20.08.26Team Liquid – Team YandexTeam Liquid15.007lost-7-18991
20.08.26PARIVISION – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team15.008lost-8-18983
16.08.26LGD Gaming – Team YandexLGD Gaming15.008lost-8-18976
15.08.26OG – GamerLegionOG15.008lost-8-18968
15.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming11.008lost-8-18960
15.08.26PARIVISION – Team SpiritTeam Spirit14.008lost-8-18952
15.08.26BETBOOM Team – Aurora GamingBETBOOM Team15.008lost-8-18944
15.08.261w Team – Team Liquid1w Team5.309lost-9-18936
15.08.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.009lost-9-18927
15.08.26LGD Gaming – Xtreme GamingXtreme Gaming15.009lost-9-18918
15.08.26Team Falcons – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.009lost-9-18909
14.08.26LGD Gaming – Nigma GalaxyLGD Gaming15.009lost-9-18900
14.08.26Team Yandex – Team LiquidTeam Yandex4.809lost-9-18891
13.08.26OG – Nigma GalaxyOG5.8010lost-10-18882
13.08.26Aurora Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0010lost-10-18872
13.08.26PARIVISION – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience15.0010lost-10-18862
12.08.26Level UP – Rune EatersRune Eaters4.0010lost-10-18852
11.08.26Rune Eaters – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity15.0010lost-10-18842
11.08.26Yellow Submarine – Zero TenacityYellow Submarine15.0011lost-11-18831
11.08.26Rune Eaters – MOUZMOUZ15.0011lost-11-18821
10.08.26Rune Eaters – Natus VincereRune Eaters15.0011lost-11-18810
10.08.26Rune Eaters Arise – No HoodwinkRune Eaters Arise12.0011lost-11-18798
08.08.26Ilbirs eSports – No HoodwinkIlbirs eSports13.0012lost-12-18787
07.08.26Team Jenz – Nemiga GamingTeam Jenz14.0012lost-12-18776
07.08.26Zero Tenacity – No HoodwinkNo Hoodwink13.0012lost-12-18764
06.08.26Ilbirs eSports – Power RangersIlbirs eSports6.6012lost-12-18752
05.08.26Team Liquid – 1w Team1w Team15.0013lost-13-18739
05.08.26PlayTime – Yakult BrothersYakult Brothers15.0013lost-13-18727
05.08.261w Team – BETBOOM TeamBETBOOM Team13.0013lost-13-18714
04.08.26Team Liquid – Team FalconsTeam Liquid13.0013lost-13-18701
04.08.26Yakult Brothers – Rune EatersRune Eaters12.0014lost-14-18687
04.08.26PlayTime – Team ResilienceTeam Resilience13.0014lost-14-18674
03.08.26Team Liquid – Vici GamingVici Gaming10.0014lost-14-18660
03.08.26Vici Gaming – Yakult BrothersVici Gaming3.6014lost-14-18646
03.08.26OG – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0015lost-15-18631
03.08.26Xtreme Gaming – Team ResilienceXtreme Gaming3.3015lost-15-18617
03.08.26LGD Gaming – 1w TeamLGD Gaming15.0015lost-15-18601
03.08.26GLYPH – PlayTimeGLYPH14.0016lost-16-18586
02.08.26Team Liquid – LGD GamingLGD Gaming5.0016lost-16-18570
02.08.26Vici Gaming – OGOG13.0016lost-16-18554
02.08.26TpaBoMaH Team – Stray TeamStray Team13.0017lost-17-18538
02.08.26Team Falcons – 1w Team1w Team15.0017lost-17-18521
02.08.26Yellow Submarine – Team ResilienceYellow Submarine14.0017lost-17-18504
01.08.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamStray Team13.0018lost-18-18487
01.08.26GLYPH – Zero TenacityZero Tenacity6.0018lost-18-18469
01.08.26NS Team – VooDooSh TeamVooDooSh Team4.2018lost-18-18451
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – GamerLegionGamerLegion15.0019lost-19-18433
01.08.26Daxak Team – Team aviceDaxak Team11.0019lost-19-18414
01.08.26BETBOOM Team – LGD GamingLGD Gaming14.0020lost-20-18395
01.08.26Midas Club – Team ResilienceMidas Club14.0020lost-20-18375
31.07.26BETBOOM Team – Team LiquidBETBOOM Team11.008lost-8-18355
31.07.26Yakult Brothers – Zero TenacityYakult Brothers14.008lost-8-18347
31.07.26Enjoy Boys – GLYPHEnjoy Boys14.008lost-8-18339
31.07.26L1ga Team – REKONIXL1ga Team8.508lost-8-18331
31.07.26LGD Gaming – GamerLegionGamerLegion7.008lost-8-18323
31.07.26Amaru Gaming – Vici GamingAmaru Gaming11.009lost-9-18315
30.07.26Ilbirs eSports – Amaru GamingAmaru Gaming3.009lost-9-18306
30.07.26Team Falcons – Vici GamingVici Gaming15.009lost-9-18297
30.07.26Stray Team – TpaBoMaH TeamTpaBoMaH Team12.009lost-9-18288
30.07.26Nigma Galaxy – Vici GamingNigma Galaxy13.009lost-9-18279
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.
This strategy will be used for recommendations on match pages.Select strategy
Betting strategy "Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)" on historical data: hit rate, profit, ROI and drawdown across bankroll stake sizes. Starting bankroll 1000 units. Not investment advice.