Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
Value on the underdog: the same ≥ 5% edge, but only on a team at odds ≥ 2.0. Hunting underrated dogs — rarer, with bigger payouts.
profit
-1318u
ROI
-85.8%
win rate
3%
bets
154
drawdown
131.7%
payouts
25
Balance by period
Blue line is the working bankroll. Dashes mark the starting sum. At the end of each period the bankroll returns to start: a green dot means profit withdrawn, red means a top-up.
working bankrollstarting sumprofit withdrawntop-up
Strategy rules
🎯
What we bet on
Value on underdog (odds ≥ 2)
💰
Stake size
Flat (10 units)
🔁
Return to start
At the end of the period the bankroll is brought back to the starting sum: profit is withdrawn, drawdown topped up with a deposit.
📊
Odds
Computed on real historical odds averaged per match, not on "convenient" ones.
Recent withdrawals and top-ups
period 25profit withdrawn+0u
period 24profit withdrawn+0u
period 23profit withdrawn+0u
period 22profit withdrawn+0u
period 21profit withdrawn+0u
period 20profit withdrawn+0u
period 19profit withdrawn+0u
period 18profit withdrawn+0u
Stake sizes
| Stake | Bets | Hit | Profit | ROI | Drawdown | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martingale | 9 | 11% | -1000 | -95.7% | 100% | Select |
| Flat (10 units) | 154 | 3% | -1318 | -85.8% | 131.7% | Selected |
| 10% of bankroll | 2798 | 3% | -14965 | -89.9% | 1479.3% | Select |
| 1% of bankroll | 4780 | 3% | -19766 | -88.9% | 1972.2% | Select |
| 2% of bankroll | 4780 | 3% | -23488 | -89.2% | 2338.7% | Select |
| 5% of bankroll | 4780 | 3% | -24786 | -89.8% | 2456.5% | Select |
| Quarter Kelly | 4780 | 3% | -24965 | -91.3% | 2496.5% | Select |
Bet-by-bet match log
Every bet the strategy placed on a specific match: pick, odds, result and bankroll after. Total bets: 154, showing the last 60.
| Date | Match | Bet on | Odds | Stake | Result | ±Bank | Bank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.09.24 | L1ga Team – Five Beavers | L1ga Team | 5.30 | 5 | lost | -5 | -318 |
| 25.09.24 | One Move – Team N1ntendo | Team N1ntendo | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -312 |
| 25.09.24 | Talon Esports – Kukuys | Kukuys | 3.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -302 |
| 25.09.24 | 1w Team – Hydra | Hydra | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -292 |
| 25.09.24 | DMS – Night Pulse | DMS | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -282 |
| 25.09.24 | Team Mantaps – Myth Avenue Gaming | Myth Avenue Gaming | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -272 |
| 25.09.24 | Team Zero – Azure Ray | Team Zero | 3.60 | 10 | lost | -10 | -262 |
| 25.09.24 | Team Essence – PlsReportTimber | PlsReportTimber | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -252 |
| 25.09.24 | Bruv123 – Kukuys | Bruv123 | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -242 |
| 25.09.24 | Invictus Gaming – Evil Rabbit | Evil Rabbit | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -232 |
| 25.09.24 | nouns – Looking for Org | Looking for Org | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -222 |
| 25.09.24 | beastcoast – Apex Genesis | beastcoast | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -212 |
| 25.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – Cuyes Esports | Cuyes Esports | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -202 |
| 24.09.24 | nouns – beastcoast | beastcoast | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -192 |
| 24.09.24 | AVULUS – MOUZ | AVULUS | 5.80 | 10 | lost | -10 | -182 |
| 24.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – Looking for Org | Shopify Rebellion | 3.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -172 |
| 24.09.24 | OG – Nigma Galaxy | OG | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -162 |
| 24.09.24 | MOUZ – Nightshade | Nightshade | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -152 |
| 24.09.24 | AVULUS – Level UP | Level UP | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -142 |
| 24.09.24 | Team Hryvnia – Palianytsia | Team Hryvnia | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -132 |
| 24.09.24 | Yangon Galacticos – Kukuys | Yangon Galacticos | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -122 |
| 24.09.24 | Talon Esports – Bruv123 | Bruv123 | 10.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -112 |
| 24.09.24 | OG – MOUZ | MOUZ | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -102 |
| 24.09.24 | Nigma Galaxy – AVULUS | AVULUS | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -92 |
| 24.09.24 | Kukuys – Execration | Execration | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -82 |
| 24.09.24 | BOOM Esports – Yangon Galacticos | BOOM Esports | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -72 |
| 24.09.24 | Bruv123 – BOOM Esports | BOOM Esports | 6.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -62 |
| 24.09.24 | Talon Esports – Kukuys | Kukuys | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -52 |
| 24.09.24 | Gods of Hell – Cuyes Esports | Gods of Hell | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -42 |
| 24.09.24 | ChatoMetraca – Apex Genesis | ChatoMetraca | 7.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | -32 |
| 23.09.24 | Shopify Rebellion – ChatoMetraca | ChatoMetraca | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -22 |
| 23.09.24 | Looking for Org – Apex Genesis | Apex Genesis | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -12 |
| 23.09.24 | Night Pulse – Team Hryvnia | Team Hryvnia | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | -2 |
| 23.09.24 | nouns – Gods of Hell | Gods of Hell | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 8 |
| 23.09.24 | beastcoast – Cuyes Esports | Cuyes Esports | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 18 |
| 23.09.24 | Nightshade – Just Team | Just Team | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 28 |
| 23.09.24 | Level UP – Dragon Esports | Dragon Esports | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 38 |
| 23.09.24 | OG – Level UP | Level UP | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 48 |
| 23.09.24 | Nigma Galaxy – Nightshade | Nightshade | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 58 |
| 23.09.24 | Yangon Galacticos – Team Essence | Team Essence | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 68 |
| 23.09.24 | MOUZ – Dragon Esports | Dragon Esports | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 78 |
| 23.09.24 | AVULUS – Just Team | Just Team | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 88 |
| 23.09.24 | Execration – Bruv123 | Execration | 3.20 | 10 | lost | -10 | 98 |
| 23.09.24 | Team Essence – Kukuys | Team Essence | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 108 |
| 23.09.24 | Talon Esports – Yangon Galacticos | Yangon Galacticos | 13.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 118 |
| 23.09.24 | Apex Genesis – Free Stack | Free Stack | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 128 |
| 22.09.24 | TopTab – Dragon Esports | TopTab | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 138 |
| 22.09.24 | Team Hryvnia – Bushido | Team Hryvnia | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 148 |
| 22.09.24 | Drago kings – Nightshade | Drago kings | 2.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 158 |
| 22.09.24 | NoLimit – Hydra | NoLimit | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 168 |
| 22.09.24 | MANTA Esports – Yangon Galacticos | MANTA Esports | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 178 |
| 22.09.24 | Nemiga Gaming – Five Beavers | Nemiga Gaming | 2.90 | 10 | lost | -10 | 188 |
| 22.09.24 | Evil Rabbit – Spiky Gaming | Spiky Gaming | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 198 |
| 22.09.24 | the goal of all life is death – Evil Rabbit | the goal of all life is death | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 208 |
| 21.09.24 | Dragon Esports – Night Pulse | Dragon Esports | 8.00 | 10 | won | +70 | 218 |
| 21.09.24 | Bushido – Palianytsia | Bushido | 12.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 148 |
| 21.09.24 | ChatoMetraca – Pacific esports | Pacific esports | 4.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 158 |
| 21.09.24 | Fusion – Cuyes Esports | Fusion | 9.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 168 |
| 20.09.24 | HAVU Gaming – One Move | HAVU Gaming | 11.00 | 10 | lost | -10 | 178 |
| 20.09.24 | TT Team – Passion UA | TT Team | 8.50 | 10 | lost | -10 | 188 |
Odds are real historical figures averaged per match. Outcome probability is built walk-forward with Elo (no look-ahead). Starting bankroll is 1000 units. This is not investment advice.