FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Muerta
not me · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 17 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 12 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
450 picks · 436 bans
Tiny
421 picks · 586 bans
Phantom Assassin
311 picks · 622 bans
Ringmaster
309 picks · 141 bans
Muerta
289 picks · 162 bans
Bristleback
283 picks · 532 bans
Terrorblade
283 picks · 506 bans
Beastmaster
281 picks · 565 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
One Move 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaEyesight
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Sand Kingzvёzd
TinyRCY
SlardarDifference
DoomFayde
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
WindrangerBignum
Tusknot me
JakiroSpeeed
Game 2prediction correct17:19
One Move 39%Wildcard Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritDifference
Dragon KnightLowskill
GyrocopterEyesight
PuckRCY
Night Stalkerzvёzd
BristlebackFayde
Tinynot me
WarlockSpeeed
JakiroBb3px
TuskBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 69%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2