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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 29 games
34%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 24 games
42%
Muerta
Muerta
not me · 22 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 20 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
47%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 18 games
67%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 17 games
35%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 12 games
75%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
450 picks · 436 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 586 bans
49%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
311 picks · 622 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
309 picks · 141 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
289 picks · 162 bans
54%
Bristleback
Bristleback
283 picks · 532 bans
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
283 picks · 506 bans
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
281 picks · 565 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% Wildcard Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:28
One Move 40%Wildcard Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 30:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaEyesight
44% · 174 games52% · 121 game
Phantom AssassinLowskill
Phantom Assassin
Sand King
Sand Kingzvёzd
54% · 324 games45% · 287 games
TinyRCY
Tiny
Slardar
SlardarDifference
46% · 135 games54% · 205 games
DoomFayde
Doom
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionBb3px
54% · 154 games48% · 184 games
WindrangerBignum
Windranger
Tusk
Tusknot me
53% · 282 games48% · 272 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct17:19
One Move 39%Wildcard Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
50% · 348 games48% · 457 games
Dragon KnightLowskill
Dragon Knight
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterEyesight
51% · 342 games46% · 218 games
PuckRCY
Puck
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerzvёzd
55% · 145 games54% · 361 game
BristlebackFayde
Bristleback
Tiny
Tinynot me
51% · 460 games48% · 239 games
WarlockSpeeed
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroBb3px
48% · 314 games50% · 334 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 69%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2