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BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
39%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 15 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Malady · 15 games
47%

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
Panto · 21 game
52%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
42%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 18 games
61%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 17 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
40%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
445 picks · 430 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
334 picks · 677 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
311 picks · 592 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
304 picks · 177 bans
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
303 picks · 139 bans
51%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
294 picks · 596 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 487 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
56% · 164 games51% · 227 games
Phantom AssassinNightfall
Phantom Assassin
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
45% · 206 games47% · 242 games
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
Doom
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
51% · 137 games49% · 95 games
Leshrackiyotaka
Leshrac
Windranger
WindrangertOfu
51% · 169 games48% · 158 games
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Bristleback
BristlebackMalady
56% · 232 games46% · 186 games
RingmasterMira
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct30:35
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:21:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeWatson
48% · 247 games53% · 212 games
DoomNightfall
Doom
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
49% · 60 games48% · 149 games
Windrangerkiyotaka
Windranger
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
56% · 255 games46% · 156 games
RingmasterPanto
Ringmaster
Muerta
MuertatOfu
49% · 301 game53% · 221 game
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Magnus
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMalady
54% · 114 games42% · 239 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 60%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2