BLAST Slam III · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Muertasignature
tOfu · 31 game
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Watson · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 18 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 15 games
Jakiro
Malady · 15 games
Aurora Gaming
Jakiro
Panto · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
Nightfall · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
Tusksignature
Mira · 19 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Nightfall · 18 games
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kiyotaka · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Jabz · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
445 picks · 430 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 637 bans
Phantom Assassin
334 picks · 677 bans
Bristleback
311 picks · 592 bans
Muerta
304 picks · 177 bans
Ringmaster
303 picks · 139 bans
Beastmaster
294 picks · 596 bans
Dragon Knight
293 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total60% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:12
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingQuinn
Phantom AssassinNightfall
TerrorbladeWatson
DoomTORONTOTOKYO
TidehunterAce
Leshrackiyotaka
WindrangertOfu
WarlockPanto
BristlebackMalady
RingmasterMira
Game 2prediction correct30:35
Gaimin Gladiators 54%Aurora Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 1:21:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeWatson
DoomNightfall
Wraith KingAce
Windrangerkiyotaka
Monkey KingQuinn
RingmasterPanto
MuertatOfu
MagnusTORONTOTOKYO
Ancient ApparitionMalady
TuskMira
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 60%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2