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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
36%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
60%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 8 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 23 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
35%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 15 games
87%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 701 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
481 picks · 558 bans
55%
Muerta
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
476 picks · 601 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 562 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
432 picks · 958 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 230 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
Team Secret 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkParker
40% · 80 games48% · 189 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Tiny
TinySupream^
46% · 482 games59% · 80 games
EarthshakerSumaiL
Earthshaker
Abaddon
AbaddonMikSa`
37% · 56 games52% · 153 games
BristlebackNo!ob
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaPuppey
51% · 244 games57% · 220 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Riki
RikiThiolicor
49% · 48 games60% · 268 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct14:49
Team Secret 40%Nigma Galaxy 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerParker
45% · 37 games52% · 235 games
BeastmasterNo!ob
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinySupream^
47% · 253 games47% · 124 games
Phantom AssassinGhost
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterMikSa`
51% · 64 games54% · 158 games
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Earth Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
55% · 114 games53% · 48 games
WarlockGH
Warlock
Lich
LichPuppey
46% · 115 games44% · 18 games
RikiOmaR
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2