PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Batrideroften banned
Puppey · 11 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Kyzko · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Dragon Knightsignature
423 · 10 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Kyzko · 9 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
423 · 9 games
Bristlebacksignature
MikSa` · 8 games
Invokersignature
xn丶e · 8 games
Nigma Galaxy
Clockwerksignature
GH · 23 games
Marssignature
No!ob · 21 game
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 20 games
Magnusoften banned
No!ob · 19 games
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 18 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
Bristlebacksignature
No!ob · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
519 picks · 701 bans
Clockwerk
481 picks · 558 bans
Muerta
477 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
476 picks · 601 bans
Tiny
463 picks · 562 bans
Gyrocopter
437 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
432 picks · 958 bans
Lion
394 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength56% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total68% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:37
Team Secret 38%Nigma Galaxy 62%
The model gave 62% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlarkParker
MorphlingGhost
TinySupream^
EarthshakerSumaiL
AbaddonMikSa`
BristlebackNo!ob
PugnaPuppey
PhoenixGH
RikiThiolicor
ClockwerkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct14:49
Team Secret 40%Nigma Galaxy 60%
The model gave 60% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerParker
BeastmasterNo!ob
TinySupream^
Phantom AssassinGhost
TidehunterMikSa`
Earth SpiritSumaiL
Nyx AssassinThiolicor
WarlockGH
LichPuppey
RikiOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 68%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2