FISSURE PLAYGROUND Belgrade 2025 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 40 games
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 36 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 34 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 30 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 22 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 17 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 17 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 17 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
475 picks · 406 bans
Phoenix
461 picks · 565 bans
Batrider
445 picks · 550 bans
Clockwerk
427 picks · 535 bans
Gyrocopter
416 picks · 777 bans
Tiny
411 picks · 452 bans
Lion
406 picks · 232 bans
Magnus
397 picks · 856 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:16
Team Falcons 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerSkiter
MorphlingSatanic
PangolierMalr1ne
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Centaur WarrunnerATF
PhoenixDM
EnchantressSneyking
Crystal MaidenDukalis
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Marci9Class
Game 2prediction correct36:24
Team Falcons 54%PARIVISION 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSkiter
TinyNo[o]ne
DoomATF
SlarkSatanic
MagnusMalr1ne
PhoenixDM
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Batrider9Class
OmniknightSneyking
Elder TitanDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2