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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingloss 1:2
series probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Cloud Rising

Axe
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
80%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
60%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 4 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Ice Coke · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ice Coke · 3 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sheep · 3 games
33%

Yakult Brothers

Tiny
Tinysignature
lou · 15 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kaka · 14 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
Kaka · 14 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Moon · 14 games
43%
Phoenix
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 12 games
58%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 9 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaka · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 332 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
345 picks · 470 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 513 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 489 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 644 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
280 picks · 304 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
267 picks · 188 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total94% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Cloud Rising 6%Yakult Brothers 94%
The model gave 94% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Cloud Rising.
Game 2prediction correct5:25
Cloud Rising 23%Yakult Brothers 77%
The model gave 77% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 23:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezYumeyume
51% · 145 games46% · 130 games
Ursalou
Ursa
Dark Seer
Dark SeerIce Coke
54% · 53 games42% · 113 games
DawnbreakerBEYOND
Dawnbreaker
Puck
PuckQ7
51% · 474 games40% · 333 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Bane
BaneUndyne_
61% · 171 game52% · 149 games
LionKaka
Lion
50% · 118 games
Techies天命
Techies
Game 3prediction correct9:37
Cloud Rising 20%Yakult Brothers 80%
The model gave 80% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
NecrophosYumeyume
56% · 80 games48% · 57 games
Linalou
Lina
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritQ7
48% · 345 games47% · 156 games
TimbersawBEYOND
Timbersaw
Underlord
UnderlordIce Coke
54% · 204 games50% · 380 games
Ember SpiritEmo
Ember Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernUndyne_
56% · 140 games44% · 30 games
Crystal Maiden天命
Crystal Maiden
43% · 146 games
Dark WillowKaka
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 94%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3