BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
6%94%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Rising
Axeoften banned
Ice Coke · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 5 games
Witch Doctor
谢乐zzz张泽中 · 5 games
Kezoften banned
Yumeyume · 4 games
Primal Beast
Ice Coke · 4 games
Doomoften banned
Ice Coke · 3 games
Hoodwink
sheep · 3 games
Yakult Brothers
Tinysignature
lou · 15 games
Hoodwink
Kaka · 14 games
Lionsignature
Kaka · 14 games
Puckoften banned
Moon · 14 games
Phoenix
天命 · 12 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 12 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 9 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Kaka · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
495 picks · 332 bans
Bane
345 picks · 470 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 513 bans
Clockwerk
333 picks · 489 bans
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 304 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
264 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total94% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Cloud Rising 6%Yakult Brothers 94%
The model gave 94% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Cloud Rising.
Game 2prediction correct5:25
Cloud Rising 23%Yakult Brothers 77%
The model gave 77% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 23:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezYumeyume
Ursalou
Dark SeerIce Coke
DawnbreakerBEYOND
PuckQ7
Void SpiritEmo
BaneUndyne_
LionKaka
50% · 118 games
Techies天命
Game 3prediction correct9:37
Cloud Rising 20%Yakult Brothers 80%
The model gave 80% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 28:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosYumeyume
Linalou
Storm SpiritQ7
TimbersawBEYOND
UnderlordIce Coke
Ember SpiritEmo
Winter WyvernUndyne_
Crystal Maiden天命
43% · 146 games
Dark WillowKaka
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 94%
Series resultYakult Brothers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3