European Pro League Season 22 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
9Pandas
Tinysignature
erase · 11 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Solo · 10 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
laise · 9 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 9 games
Dark Willowsignature
yamich · 8 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 8 games
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 8 games
MOUZ
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 26 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 24 games
Witch Doctor
bengan · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 23 games
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 21 game
Jakiro
bengan · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 20 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
467 picks · 573 bans
Clockwerk
441 picks · 527 bans
Pangolier
388 picks · 571 bans
Batrider
370 picks · 405 bans
Muerta
365 picks · 276 bans
Dark Willow
364 picks · 181 bans
Beastmaster
334 picks · 719 bans
Invoker
322 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% 9Pandas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
9Pandas 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snipererase
TerrorbladeUlnit
MorphlingDarkLord^
InvokerMaTson
Doomlaise
Centaur WarrunnerMikSa`
ClockwerkSolo
MuertaThiolicor
Shadow Demonjesv
Ogre MagiFly
Game 2prediction correct30:40
9Pandas 41%MOUZ 59%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 41:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterDarkLord^
LinaMaTson
Doomlaise
SpectreUlnit
Ember Spiriterase
TerrorbladeMikSa`
LichSolo
MuertaThiolicor
Hoodwinkjesv
ClockwerkImmortalFaith
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 69%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2