ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Batridersignature
Save- · 27 games
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 18 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 15 games
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
Nisha · 27 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Muerta
Boxi · 22 games
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
Clockwerk
417 picks · 491 bans
Pangolier
362 picks · 535 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
Luna
337 picks · 449 bans
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 500 bans
Enchantress
306 picks · 596 bans
Alchemist
302 picks · 651 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:37
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinPure~
WeavermiCKe
Linakiyotaka
Storm SpiritNisha
Primal BeastMieRo
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Shadow DemonSave-
PhoenixiNSaNiA
TuskKataomi
HoodwinkBoxi
Game 2prediction correct44:12
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistPure~
MorphlingmiCKe
Sand KingMieRo
TinyNisha
Invokerkiyotaka
MarsSabeRLight-
HoodwinkSave-
Shadow DemonBoxi
Crystal MaidenKataomi
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2