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ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Batrider
Batridersignature
Save- · 27 games
63%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 26 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
70%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 20 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 18 games
61%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 15 games
53%

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 27 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
60%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 24 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
59%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 20 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
491 picks · 673 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
417 picks · 491 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
362 picks · 535 bans
49%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
337 picks · 449 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
307 picks · 500 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 596 bans
53%
Alchemist
Alchemist
302 picks · 651 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Team Liquid
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total56% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:37
BETBOOM TEAM 53%Team Liquid 47%
The model gave 53% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPure~
55% · 161 game58% · 170 games
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Lina
Linakiyotaka
47% · 102 games54% · 240 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMieRo
49% · 272 games51% · 91 game
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
47% · 315 games46% · 268 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Tusk
TuskKataomi
46% · 291 game47% · 372 games
HoodwinkBoxi
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct44:12
BETBOOM TEAM 54%Team Liquid 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistPure~
54% · 271 game48% · 342 games
MorphlingmiCKe
Morphling
Sand King
Sand KingMieRo
53% · 211 games51% · 383 games
TinyNisha
Tiny
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
53% · 216 games43% · 285 games
MarsSabeRLight-
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkSave-
46% · 514 games53% · 325 games
Shadow DemonBoxi
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKataomi
51% · 428 games47% · 305 games
PhoenixiNSaNiA
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 56%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2