ESL One Bangkok 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
BETBOOM TEAM
Batridersignature
Save- · 27 games
Tuskoften banned
Kataomi · 26 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 20 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 18 games
Muertasignature
Save- · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Save- · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
Kataomi · 15 games
PARIVISION
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
DM · 16 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 14 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 12 games
Enigmaoften banned
DM · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
490 picks · 674 bans
Clockwerk
415 picks · 490 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 533 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 184 bans
Luna
338 picks · 450 bans
Dragon Knight
306 picks · 494 bans
Enchantress
305 picks · 596 bans
Batrider
303 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total55% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:29
BETBOOM TEAM 54%PARIVISION 46%
The model gave 54% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 44:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerPure~
GyrocopterCrystallis
Invokerkiyotaka
RikiNo[o]ne
BrewmasterMieRo
MagnusDM
MuertaSave-
Techies9Class
LichKataomi
ClockwerkDukalis
Game 2prediction missed19:45
BETBOOM TEAM 56%PARIVISION 44%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 38:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoPure~
PuckNo[o]ne
BrewmasterMieRo
RazorCrystallis
Monkey Kingkiyotaka
PhoenixDM
MuertaSave-
PugnaDukalis
Crystal MaidenKataomi
Clockwerk9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 55%
Accuracy by game1 of 2