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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangersloss 1:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 38 games
58%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 28 games
46%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 27 games
63%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
62%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 25 games
64%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Immersion · 18 games
50%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 20 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 16 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Seleri · 16 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
499 picks · 358 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
360 picks · 645 bans
54%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 389 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
337 picks · 189 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
318 picks · 345 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 449 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 231 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 327 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 22%
Hero pool strength58% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:5
Power Rangers 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophos
Necrophoskiyotaka
47% · 54 games56% · 72 games
ClinkzCrystallis
Clinkz
Kez
Kezbashka
50% · 111 games51% · 74 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
45% · 184 games53% · 163 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Mirana
MiranaHduo
44% · 66 games52% · 59 games
WeaverOneJey
Weaver
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerImmersion
50% · 45 games52% · 92 games
UndyingImmortalFaith
Undying
Game 2prediction missed22:51
Power Rangers 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
54% · 263 games45% · 113 games
Dark SeerBOOM
Dark Seer
Sven
Svenbashka
47% · 92 games45% · 92 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
56% · 282 games48% · 294 games
PuckSupream^
Puck
Mirana
MiranaHduo
47% · 49 games53% · 187 games
GyrocopterOneJey
Gyrocopter
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerImmersion
44% · 62 games56% · 62 games
PudgeImmortalFaith
Pudge
Game 3prediction missed20:34
Power Rangers 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
53% · 315 games49% · 123 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
Nature's Prophet
Spectre
Spectrebashka
51% · 19 games57% · 52 games
SlarkSupream^
Slark
Undying
UndyingAlberkaaa
44% · 107 games51% · 259 games
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Willow
Dark WillowImmersion
40% · 152 games52% · 140 games
GyrocopterOneJey
Gyrocopter
Mirana
MiranaHduo
50% · 74 games56% · 93 games
Winter WyvernTobi
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3