EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 38 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 28 games
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 27 games
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 25 games
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
Tusk
Immersion · 18 games
MOUZ
Tusk
yamich · 24 games
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 20 games
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 17 games
Warlock
Seleri · 17 games
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 16 games
Enchantress
Seleri · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
499 picks · 358 bans
Clockwerk
360 picks · 645 bans
Bane
346 picks · 389 bans
Rubick
337 picks · 189 bans
Tiny
318 picks · 345 bans
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 449 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 327 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 22%
Hero pool strength58% Power Rangers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:5
Power Rangers 52%MOUZ 48%
The model gave 52% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 23:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Necrophoskiyotaka
ClinkzCrystallis
Kezbashka
Earth SpiritSupream^
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
TidehunterBOOM
MiranaHduo
WeaverOneJey
Spirit BreakerImmersion
UndyingImmortalFaith
Game 2prediction missed22:51
Power Rangers 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by MOUZ in 31:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendkiyotaka
Dark SeerBOOM
Svenbashka
RazorCrystallis
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
PuckSupream^
MiranaHduo
GyrocopterOneJey
Spirit BreakerImmersion
PudgeImmortalFaith
Game 3prediction missed20:34
Power Rangers 51%MOUZ 49%
The model gave 51% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by MOUZ in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritkiyotaka
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
Spectrebashka
SlarkSupream^
UndyingAlberkaaa
Centaur WarrunnerBOOM
Dark WillowImmersion
GyrocopterOneJey
MiranaHduo
Winter WyvernTobi
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 52%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3