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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 40 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 18 games
61%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 15 games
53%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Rain · 12 games
58%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 11 games
55%

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
33%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Windranger
Windranger
Ponlo · 6 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
607 picks · 392 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
510 picks · 284 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
480 picks · 578 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 382 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
418 picks · 588 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 952 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 281 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 492 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:29
Yellow Submarine 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyShigetsu
49% · 394 games52% · 42 games
Necrophoschempik
Necrophos
Largo
LargoBatyuk
59% · 144 games47% · 294 games
Pangolierniche
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRain
52% · 375 games50% · 218 games
AxeNefrit
Axe
Lion
LionWein
47% · 146 games46% · 315 games
PhoenixVaniLLl
Phoenix
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernXakoda
48% · 86 games52% · 276 games
WindrangerPonlo
Windranger
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Yellow Submarine 64%Ilbirs eSports 36%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzShigetsu
58% · 28 games58% · 49 games
Faceless Voidchempik
Faceless Void
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritRain
49% · 262 games49% · 157 games
DoomNefrit
Doom
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBatyuk
56% · 12 games46% · 180 games
Snapfireniche
Snapfire
Lich
LichXakoda
45% · 77 games48% · 93 games
TechiesVaniLLl
Techies
Rubick
RubickWein
49% · 189 games54% · 89 games
LionPonlo
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2