The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ilbirs eSportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 40 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 20 games
Batridersignature
not me · 18 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
Hoodwink
not me · 15 games
Windrangersignature
Shigetsu · 15 games
Void Spirit
Rain · 12 games
Warlock
Htrd · 11 games
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Void Spirit
niche · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Windranger
Ponlo · 6 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 5 games
Tiny
xsvampire · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
607 picks · 392 bans
Rubick
510 picks · 284 bans
Phoenix
480 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
463 picks · 382 bans
Pangolier
418 picks · 588 bans
Puck
342 picks · 952 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 281 bans
Ember Spirit
330 picks · 492 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 46%
Hero pool strength59% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total75% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:29
Yellow Submarine 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyShigetsu
Necrophoschempik
LargoBatyuk
Pangolierniche
Ember SpiritRain
AxeNefrit
LionWein
PhoenixVaniLLl
Winter WyvernXakoda
WindrangerPonlo
Game 2prediction correct26:19
Yellow Submarine 64%Ilbirs eSports 36%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzShigetsu
Faceless Voidchempik
Storm SpiritRain
DoomNefrit
Vengeful SpiritBatyuk
Snapfireniche
LichXakoda
TechiesVaniLLl
RubickWein
LionPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 75%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2