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DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PARIVISION

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
69%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
78%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 9 games
44%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 8 games
88%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 8 games
50%
Marci
Marcisignature
9Class · 8 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 17 games
65%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
71%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 17 games
71%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 16 games
56%
Marci
Marcisignature
XinQ · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
409 picks · 516 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
376 picks · 362 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 463 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
302 picks · 570 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
265 picks · 145 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 256 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
254 picks · 121 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
PARIVISION 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
49% · 156 games43% · 69 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Broodmother
BroodmotherDM
37% · 34 games68% · 13 games
JuggernautAme
Juggernaut
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
60% · 105 games52% · 259 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Chen
ChenDukalis
59% · 67 games45% · 119 games
Earth SpiritPyw
Earth Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark Willow9Class
49% · 122 games49% · 24 games
Lich天命
Lich
Game 2prediction missed5:16
PARIVISION 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallis
51% · 326 games49% · 338 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
55% · 217 games49% · 177 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Pangolier
PangolierDM
49% · 409 games47% · 230 games
RazorXm
Razor
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
54% · 327 games47% · 315 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Marci
Marci9Class
49% · 171 game49% · 390 games
Phoenix天命
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct34:15
PARIVISION 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNo[o]ne
47% · 338 games52% · 210 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Razor
RazorCrystallis
48% · 131 game60% · 245 games
Storm SpiritXm
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackDM
44% · 106 games56% · 130 games
Sand KingXxs
Sand King
Pugna
PugnaDukalis
50% · 120 games49% · 304 games
TuskPyw
Tusk
Batrider
Batrider9Class
43% · 249 games52% · 55 games
Oracle天命
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 57%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3