DreamLeague Season 24 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
9Class · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
No[o]ne · 9 games
Sand Kingoften banned
DM · 9 games
Alchemistsignature
Crystallis · 8 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 8 games
Marcisignature
9Class · 8 games
Xtreme Gaming
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
天命 · 17 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 17 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xxs · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ame · 16 games
Marcisignature
XinQ · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
409 picks · 516 bans
Clockwerk
376 picks · 362 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 463 bans
Luna
311 picks · 362 bans
Enchantress
302 picks · 570 bans
Dark Willow
265 picks · 145 bans
Batrider
254 picks · 256 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 36%
Hero pool strength53% PARIVISION
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:15
PARIVISION 56%Xtreme Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 37:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightCrystallis
Queen of PainXm
BroodmotherDM
JuggernautAme
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Primal BeastXxs
ChenDukalis
Earth SpiritPyw
Dark Willow9Class
Lich天命
Game 2prediction missed5:16
PARIVISION 54%Xtreme Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 23:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightCrystallis
MorphlingAme
Storm SpiritNo[o]ne
Sand KingXxs
PangolierDM
RazorXm
EnchantressDukalis
TuskPyw
Marci9Class
Phoenix天命
Game 3prediction correct34:15
PARIVISION 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierNo[o]ne
WeaverAme
RazorCrystallis
Storm SpiritXm
BristlebackDM
Sand KingXxs
PugnaDukalis
TuskPyw
Batrider9Class
Oracle天命
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 57%
Series resultPARIVISION 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3