BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Evil Rabbit
Ember Spiritoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
QYQX · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
QYQX · 3 games
Grimstroke
QYQX · 3 games
Linaoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 3 games
Spiky Gaming
Weaveroften banned
Manic · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Hara · 5 games
Dark Willow
Hara · 5 games
Doomoften banned
Manic · 3 games
Lifestealeroften banned
Manic · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
TK · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
361 picks · 349 bans
Hoodwink
359 picks · 403 bans
Jakiro
341 picks · 257 bans
Pangolier
322 picks · 510 bans
Sven
295 picks · 306 bans
Snapfire
279 picks · 252 bans
Windranger
274 picks · 350 bans
Phoenix
272 picks · 474 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 58%
Hero pool strength50% Spiky Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% Evil Rabbit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:34
Evil Rabbit 57%Spiky Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Spiky Gaming in 39:57.
Game 2prediction correct25:21
Evil Rabbit 54%Spiky Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaButterflyEffect
Templar AssassinManic
UnderlordIrving
Kunkka生死
MiranaQYQX
TinkerTK
51% · 64 games
ClockwerkHara
Game 3prediction correct27:12
Evil Rabbit 52%Spiky Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Evil Rabbit — the game was taken by Evil Rabbit in 36:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritButterflyEffect
Naga SirenManic
Primal BeastIrving
Timbersaw生死
Treant ProtectorQYQX
EnchantressTK
55% · 116 games
BatriderHara
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Rabbit · 57%
Series resultEvil Rabbit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3