EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
GamerLegion
Kezoften banned
RCY · 19 games
Dark Willow
Bignum · 18 games
Hoodwink
Bignum · 17 games
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
Tusksignature
Bignum · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 15 games
Venomancer
Speeed · 15 games
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 15 games
Pipsqueak+4
Hoodwink
Ekki · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 7 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
478 picks · 318 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 498 bans
Bane
317 picks · 433 bans
Clockwerk
315 picks · 392 bans
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 624 bans
Dark Willow
277 picks · 114 bans
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 289 bans
Mirana
275 picks · 102 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:40
GamerLegion 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 44:28.
Game 2prediction missed37:17
GamerLegion 46%Pipsqueak+4 54%
The model gave 54% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerTimado
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Dragon KnightRCY
UnderlordMalik
BrewmasterFayde
Outworld DestroyerCopy
MiranaSpeeed
Keeper of the LightEkki
HoodwinkBignum
Clockwerkaik
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 52%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2