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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegionwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

GamerLegion

Kez
Kezoften banned
RCY · 19 games
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bignum · 18 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Bignum · 17 games
29%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Bignum · 17 games
76%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
RCY · 15 games
40%
Venomancer
Venomancer
Speeed · 15 games
53%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Speeed · 15 games
33%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
45%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 8 games
88%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 7 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 6 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
478 picks · 318 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 498 bans
58%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 433 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 392 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
302 picks · 624 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
277 picks · 114 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 289 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
275 picks · 102 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 70%
Hero pool strength56% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed0:40
GamerLegion 48%Pipsqueak+4 52%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 44:28.
Game 2prediction missed37:17
GamerLegion 46%Pipsqueak+4 54%
The model gave 54% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by GamerLegion in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTimado
50% · 288 games50% · 388 games
Shadow Fiendrincyq
Shadow Fiend
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightRCY
46% · 178 games48% · 306 games
UnderlordMalik
Underlord
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFayde
44% · 124 games46% · 9 games
Outworld DestroyerCopy
Outworld Destroyer
Mirana
MiranaSpeeed
53% · 146 games58% · 218 games
Keeper of the LightEkki
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBignum
52% · 521 game48% · 336 games
Clockwerkaik
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 52%
Series resultGamerLegion 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2