Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
Hoodwink
Genek · 6 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Axe
Gardick · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 3 games
Nyx Assassin
Asao · 3 games
Team Nemesis
Tinysignature
Mac · 22 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Windranger
Q · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 17 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 17 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
601 picks · 374 bans
Rubick
495 picks · 269 bans
Phoenix
493 picks · 579 bans
Tiny
462 picks · 387 bans
Pangolier
404 picks · 561 bans
Puck
341 picks · 927 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 860 bans
Tusk
331 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
Hokori 44%Team Nemesis 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaLumière
Sniper4nalog
LargoVitaly
Drow Rangerrubikon155
HoodwinkAsao
AxeJabz
VenomancerGardick
RubickLelis
56% · 109 games
Treant ProtectorYamSun
Game 2prediction correct20:25
Hokori 43%Team Nemesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:00:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawVitaly
Terrorbladerubikon155
TinyLumière
BristlebackJabz
SilencerGardick
Snapfire4nalog
RubickAsao
LichYamSun
54% · 185 games
ClockwerkLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 63%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2