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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hokori

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
0%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Gardick · 4 games
50%
Axe
Axe
Gardick · 3 games
33%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 3 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Asao · 3 games
67%

Team Nemesis

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mac · 22 games
64%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
56%
Windranger
Windranger
Q · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Jabz · 17 games
47%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 17 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
601 picks · 374 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
495 picks · 269 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
493 picks · 579 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
462 picks · 387 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
404 picks · 561 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 927 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 860 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
331 picks · 281 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:34
Hokori 44%Team Nemesis 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaLumière
45% · 122 games46% · 34 games
Sniper4nalog
Sniper
Largo
LargoVitaly
52% · 101 game47% · 26 games
Drow Rangerrubikon155
Drow Ranger
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAsao
54% · 323 games47% · 162 games
AxeJabz
Axe
Venomancer
VenomancerGardick
51% · 54 games50% · 269 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
56% · 109 games
Treant ProtectorYamSun
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct20:25
Hokori 43%Team Nemesis 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 1:00:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawVitaly
56% · 171 game53% · 163 games
Terrorbladerubikon155
Terrorblade
Tiny
TinyLumière
51% · 317 games50% · 204 games
BristlebackJabz
Bristleback
Silencer
SilencerGardick
49% · 134 games41% · 191 game
Snapfire4nalog
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickAsao
46% · 209 games49% · 88 games
LichYamSun
Lich
54% · 185 games
ClockwerkLelis
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 63%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2