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FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malik · 28 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 26 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
52%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 23 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 17 games
65%

Yellow Submarine

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 33 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
erase · 27 games
67%
Techies
Techies
rue · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 20 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 19 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
434 picks · 368 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 462 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
390 picks · 837 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 868 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
363 picks · 531 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 617 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:30
PSG Quest 68%Yellow Submarine 32%
The model gave 68% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTA2000
43% · 120 games52% · 125 games
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingNo!ob
55% · 91 game50% · 107 games
UrsaSatanic
Ursa
Viper
ViperMalik
55% · 59 games52% · 154 games
Centaur WarrunnerAntares
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixDukalis
49% · 378 games49% · 181 game
Rubickrue
Rubick
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
46% · 81 game50% · 162 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct16:4
PSG Quest 70%Yellow Submarine 30%
The model gave 70% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 14:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
58% · 141 game50% · 210 games
Dragon KnightSatanic
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTA2000
36% · 61 game43% · 93 games
Shadow Fienderase
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
54% · 289 games47% · 113 games
Underlordfn
Underlord
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinOmaR
48% · 50 games49% · 58 games
Miranarue
Mirana
Jakiro
JakiroDukalis
50% · 131 game56% · 198 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 82%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2