FISSURE Universe: Episode 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Hoodwinksignature
OmaR · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Malik · 28 games
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 26 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
No!ob · 25 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
OmaR · 23 games
Tinysignature
No!ob · 23 games
Windrangeroften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 17 games
Yellow Submarine
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 33 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
erase · 27 games
Techies
rue · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 24 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 20 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 19 games
Rubick
rue · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
434 picks · 368 bans
Hoodwink
424 picks · 462 bans
Weaver
390 picks · 837 bans
Tiny
385 picks · 868 bans
Phoenix
370 picks · 768 bans
Pangolier
363 picks · 531 bans
Clockwerk
338 picks · 508 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total82% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:30
PSG Quest 68%Yellow Submarine 32%
The model gave 68% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 51:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritTA2000
Dragon KnightSquad1x
Sand KingNo!ob
UrsaSatanic
ViperMalik
Centaur WarrunnerAntares
PhoenixDukalis
Rubickrue
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Enchantressasdekor_r
Game 2prediction correct16:4
PSG Quest 70%Yellow Submarine 30%
The model gave 70% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 14:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerMalik
Dragon KnightSatanic
Void SpiritTA2000
Shadow Fienderase
TinyNo!ob
Underlordfn
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Miranarue
JakiroDukalis
Enchantressasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 82%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2