Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DDirebornloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Execration
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 13 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 11 games
Skywrath Mage
cml · 11 games
Jakiro
cml · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Bob · 10 games
Axe
Tino- · 9 games
Muertaoften banned
Shanks · 8 games
Direborn
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Juju · 3 games
Marsoften banned
woMy · 2 games
Night Stalker
woMy · 2 games
Slarkoften banned
Cije · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Anti-Mageoften banned
Cije · 1 game
Crystal Maiden
Juju · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
woMy · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
600 picks · 371 bans
Phoenix
492 picks · 579 bans
Rubick
490 picks · 266 bans
Tiny
458 picks · 386 bans
Pangolier
403 picks · 556 bans
Puck
339 picks · 919 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 850 bans
Tusk
326 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Direborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Execration
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:11
Execration 72%Direborn 28%
The model gave 72% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 34:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanTino-
Tinydb-
Monkey KingAkashi
UnderlordwoMy
PuckBob
SilencerPlayHard
TechiesShanks
Treant Protectorcml
Game 2prediction correct33:33
Execration 73%Direborn 27%
The model gave 73% on Execration — the game was taken by Execration in 46:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidAkashi
Monkey Kingdb-
DoomTino-
DawnbreakerwoMy
PangolierBob
SilencerPlayHard
Chencml
TuskShanks
Model check result
Model favoriteExecration · 87%
Series resultExecration 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2