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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 28 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Miposhka · 27 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 26 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 25 games
56%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Miposhka · 24 games
79%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 19 games
47%

LGD Gaming

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 20 games
35%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Echo · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 13 games
62%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Pyw · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
399 picks · 397 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
398 picks · 867 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 288 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
373 picks · 780 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
339 picks · 531 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
334 picks · 475 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
329 picks · 669 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
316 picks · 376 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:14
Team Spirit 63%LGD Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYatoro
46% · 239 games50% · 71 game
Ursashiro
Ursa
Leshrac
LeshracLarl
50% · 127 games51% · 114 games
Ember SpiritEcho
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingCollapse
59% · 81 game53% · 125 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroMira
43% · 130 games49% · 122 games
WeaverPyw
Weaver
Oracle
OracleMiposhka
41% · 33 games54% · 178 games
Crystal Maideny`
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct22:4
Team Spirit 64%LGD Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 24:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYatoro
55% · 262 games46% · 82 games
LeshracEcho
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLarl
47% · 94 games53% · 143 games
Windrangershiro
Windranger
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
47% · 131 game52% · 185 games
Brewmasterniu
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
52% · 214 games54% · 258 games
RubickPyw
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroMira
39% · 153 games51% · 186 games
Sveny`
Sven
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2