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Clavision Snow Ruyi Invitational · BO3
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
fy · 34 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Faith_bian · 25 games
52%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Ori · 20 games
55%
Techies
Techies
天命 · 20 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
fy · 19 games
37%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Faith_bian · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lion
fy · 18 games
44%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Ori · 17 games
53%

Nigma Galaxy

Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 15 games
73%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
KuroKy · 14 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fbz · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Matthew · 12 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Miracle- · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
KuroKy · 11 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
SumaiL · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
391 picks · 841 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
384 picks · 386 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 272 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
358 picks · 761 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
327 picks · 473 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
325 picks · 524 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
317 picks · 654 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
312 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:27
Azure Ray 54%Nigma Galaxy 46%
The model gave 54% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenlou
57% · 282 games44% · 63 games
Sand KingSumaiL
Sand King
Razor
RazorOri
42% · 164 games49% · 154 games
Troll WarlordGhost
Troll Warlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFaith_bian
60% · 204 games55% · 232 games
BrewmasterFbz
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderpLAnet
50% · 195 games45% · 394 games
RubickOneJey
Rubick
Snapfire
SnapfireFantasy
44% · 137 games52% · 139 games
Elder TitanGH
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed23:32
Azure Ray 56%Nigma Galaxy 44%
The model gave 56% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordlou
53% · 85 games47% · 277 games
MorphlingGhost
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierOri
49% · 262 games51% · 321 game
Primal BeastFbz
Primal Beast
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFaith_bian
50% · 174 games45% · 75 games
Sand KingSumaiL
Sand King
Weaver
WeaverpLAnet
53% · 149 games45% · 153 games
SnapfireGH
Snapfire
Sven
SvenFantasy
54% · 205 games54% · 49 games
Nyx AssassinOneJey
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 62%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2