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Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 24 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 16 games
44%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
66%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
63%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 23 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 18 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 17 games
76%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
385 picks · 821 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
375 picks · 377 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 264 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
356 picks · 742 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
323 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 515 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
311 picks · 642 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 370 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:20
nouns 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
41% · 156 games51% · 154 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Void Spirit
Void SpiritCopy
47% · 99 games54% · 108 games
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
Faceless Void
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
55% · 374 games55% · 131 game
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLelis
53% · 45 games53% · 157 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroFly
44% · 129 games50% · 253 games
Rubickswedenstrong
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct27:34
nouns 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
48% · 115 games56% · 85 games
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Chaos Knight
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
43% · 134 games46% · 70 games
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
WindrangerCopy
47% · 109 games57% · 71 game
EnigmaCloud
Enigma
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLelis
49% · 34 games59% · 71 game
Marciswedenstrong
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroFly
48% · 85 games50% · 180 games
EnchantressRESPECT
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 57%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2