Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Tinysignature
Lelis · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 24 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 16 games
1w Team
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 29 games
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 27 games
Windrangeroften banned
Munkushi~ · 23 games
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 22 games
Batrideroften banned
RESPECT · 20 games
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 20 games
Rubick
swedenstrong · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
385 picks · 821 bans
Hoodwink
375 picks · 377 bans
Rubick
361 picks · 264 bans
Weaver
356 picks · 742 bans
Clockwerk
323 picks · 471 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 515 bans
Phoenix
311 picks · 642 bans
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 370 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 69%
Hero pool strength51% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:20
nouns 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 31:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuma
BeastmasterCloud
Void SpiritCopy
Faceless VoidMunkushi~
PangolierGunnar
WindrangerChira JUNIOR
Nyx AssassinLelis
EnchantressRESPECT
JakiroFly
Rubickswedenstrong
Game 2prediction correct27:34
nouns 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 42:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuma
Chaos KnightMunkushi~
Primal BeastGunnar
Shadow FiendChira JUNIOR
WindrangerCopy
EnigmaCloud
Nyx AssassinLelis
Marciswedenstrong
JakiroFly
EnchantressRESPECT
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 57%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2