Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Rubick
Boxi · 32 games
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
Doomsignature
33 · 29 games
Lunaoften banned
miCKe · 29 games
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 28 games
Tinysignature
Boxi · 25 games
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 21 game
Infinity Esports
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 9 games
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 8 games
Techies
Demon · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Oscar · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Hoodwink
Hyko · 6 games
Monkey Kingsignature
PiPi · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
364 picks · 766 bans
Hoodwink
343 picks · 334 bans
Weaver
335 picks · 693 bans
Rubick
334 picks · 236 bans
Clockwerk
312 picks · 466 bans
Pangolier
300 picks · 489 bans
Gyrocopter
298 picks · 370 bans
Phoenix
285 picks · 607 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total90% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
Team Liquid 75%Infinity Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 24:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendmiCKe
SvenLumière
Void SpiritNisha
PangolierFCR
Dark Seer33
InvokerPiPi
ClockwerkBoxi
TechiesHyko
JakiroiNSaNiA
Vengeful SpiritGardick
Game 2prediction missed8:23
Team Liquid 76%Infinity Esports 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingmiCKe
Templar AssassinLumière
PangolierNisha
TinyPiPi
Enigma33
BroodmotherFCR
HoodwinkBoxi
TechiesHyko
SveniNSaNiA
UndyingGardick
Game 3prediction correct29:10
Team Liquid 73%Infinity Esports 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazormiCKe
BloodseekerLumière
TinyNisha
Sand KingPiPi
Pangolier33
BroodmotherFCR
Elder TitaniNSaNiA
InvokerHyko
MorphlingBoxi
JakiroGardick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 90%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3