RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nemiga Gaming
Crystal Maiden
aik · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 25 games
Rubick
queezy · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
Nightshade
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
Jakiro
jmn- · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
Underlordoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
Kyzko · 1 game
Batrideroften banned
jmn- · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
392 picks · 717 bans
Weaver
330 picks · 635 bans
Hoodwink
329 picks · 271 bans
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
Clockwerk
321 picks · 471 bans
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 374 bans
Dark Willow
302 picks · 350 bans
Pangolier
300 picks · 536 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Nemiga Gaming 65%Nightshade 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenLowskill
Templar AssassinRi4man
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Sand KingChodΣX
BroodmotherMikSa`
TuskKyzko
Nyx Assassinjesv
Enchantressjmn-
Elder Titanforcemajor
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Nemiga Gaming 66%Nightshade 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenLowskill
PuckRi4man
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Vengeful SpiritChodΣX
BeastmasterMikSa`
TuskKyzko
Rubickjesv
Jakirojmn-
Elder Titanforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 76%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2