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RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Nightshadeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
aik · 26 games
58%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
queezy · 25 games
40%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
57%

Nightshade

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Kyzko · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ri4man · 3 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakiro
jmn- · 2 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Ri4man · 2 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Kyzko · 1 game
0%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
jmn- · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
392 picks · 717 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 635 bans
54%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
329 picks · 271 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 219 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
321 picks · 471 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
321 picks · 374 bans
51%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
302 picks · 350 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
300 picks · 536 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength55% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:12
Nemiga Gaming 65%Nightshade 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLowskill
55% · 117 games45% · 116 games
Templar AssassinRi4man
Templar Assassin
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
49% · 74 games49% · 38 games
Sand KingChodΣX
Sand King
Broodmother
BroodmotherMikSa`
62% · 25 games44% · 67 games
TuskKyzko
Tusk
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinjesv
52% · 37 games49% · 107 games
Enchantressjmn-
Enchantress
Elder Titan
Elder Titanforcemajor
53% · 75 games
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Nemiga Gaming 66%Nightshade 34%
The model gave 66% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLowskill
53% · 134 games50% · 186 games
PuckRi4man
Puck
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
55% · 107 games47% · 223 games
Vengeful SpiritChodΣX
Vengeful Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMikSa`
48% · 94 games45% · 120 games
TuskKyzko
Tusk
Rubick
Rubickjesv
52% · 210 games52% · 82 games
Jakirojmn-
Jakiro
Elder Titan
Elder Titanforcemajor
52% · 66 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 76%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2