Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Gaimin Gladiators
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 24 games
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 19 games
Rubick
tOfu · 17 games
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
Team Spirit
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
380 picks · 653 bans
Gyrocopter
317 picks · 366 bans
Clockwerk
314 picks · 445 bans
Dark Willow
312 picks · 350 bans
Weaver
305 picks · 563 bans
Rubick
295 picks · 183 bans
Hoodwink
290 picks · 196 bans
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:2
Gaimin Gladiators 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursadyrachyo
SlarkYatoro
PuckQuinn
InvokerLarl
UnderlordAce
Dark SeerCollapse
ChenSeleri
PhoenixMiposhka
RubicktOfu
Nyx AssassinMira
Game 2prediction missed13:31
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BrewmasterAce
MorphlingYatoro
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
Sand KingLarl
InvokerQuinn
UnderlordCollapse
HoodwinktOfu
RubickMira
UndyingSeleri
EnchantressMiposhka
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2