?
arrow_backBack to match
Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 22 games
77%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 19 games
74%
Rubick
Rubick
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 16 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
Quinn · 16 games
56%

Team Spirit

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Miposhka · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 24 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 20 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
380 picks · 653 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
317 picks · 366 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
314 picks · 445 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
312 picks · 350 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
305 picks · 563 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
295 picks · 183 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
290 picks · 196 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
282 picks · 105 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:2
Gaimin Gladiators 49%Team Spirit 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursadyrachyo
52% · 89 games53% · 67 games
SlarkYatoro
Slark
Puck
PuckQuinn
51% · 127 games58% · 96 games
InvokerLarl
Invoker
Underlord
UnderlordAce
44% · 75 games57% · 156 games
Dark SeerCollapse
Dark Seer
Chen
ChenSeleri
58% · 51 game39% · 213 games
PhoenixMiposhka
Phoenix
Rubick
RubicktOfu
43% · 198 games63% · 8 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed13:31
Gaimin Gladiators 53%Team Spirit 47%
The model gave 53% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterAce
54% · 158 games47% · 147 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
48% · 77 gameslittle data
Sand KingLarl
Sand King
Invoker
InvokerQuinn
57% · 94 games42% · 70 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
58% · 193 games47% · 239 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Undying
UndyingSeleri
47% · 90 games51% · 156 games
EnchantressMiposhka
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Accuracy by game0 of 2