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BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 21 game
62%
Kez
Kezsignature
Niku · 21 game
67%
Axe
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
89%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Daze · 18 games
61%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
pma · 16 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 11 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Niku · 11 games
73%

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
45%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 9 games
78%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
89%
Kez
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 8 games
75%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 285 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 460 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
301 picks · 119 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
293 picks · 127 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
290 picks · 282 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
276 picks · 403 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 403 bans
53%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
273 picks · 575 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Natus Vincere 69%Pipsqueak+4 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezgotthejuice
51% · 234 games52% · 9 games
Meeporincyq
Meepo
Dark Seer
Dark Seerpma
48% · 110 games51% · 181 game
DoomMalik
Doom
Magnus
MagnusNiku
46% · 60 games53% · 221 game
SlardarCopy
Slardar
Rubick
RubickDaze
45% · 419 games50% · 166 games
Techiesaik
Techies
Bane
BaneRiddys
51% · 295 games52% · 541 game
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct48:28
Natus Vincere 68%Pipsqueak+4 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezgotthejuice
52% · 129 games42% · 212 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerpma
58% · 278 games46% · 156 games
EarthshakerCopy
Earthshaker
Puck
PuckNiku
49% · 240 games50% · 156 games
Dark SeerMalik
Dark Seer
Hoodwink
HoodwinkDaze
53% · 460 games37% · 314 games
Dark WillowEkki
Dark Willow
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorRiddys
58% · 54 games56% · 323 games
Baneaik
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2