BLAST Slam IX. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Natus Vincere
Hoodwinksignature
Daze · 21 game
Kezsignature
Niku · 21 game
Axesignature
pma · 19 games
Rubicksignature
Daze · 18 games
Underlordsignature
pma · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Niku · 11 games
Invokersignature
Niku · 11 games
Pipsqueak+4
Hoodwink
Ekki · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 11 games
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 9 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Copy · 9 games
Kezoften banned
rincyq · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
462 picks · 285 bans
Ember Spirit
316 picks · 460 bans
Mirana
301 picks · 119 bans
Dark Willow
293 picks · 127 bans
Clockwerk
290 picks · 282 bans
Bane
276 picks · 403 bans
Earth Spirit
273 picks · 403 bans
Shadow Fiend
273 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 62%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Natus Vincere 69%Pipsqueak+4 31%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezgotthejuice
Meeporincyq
Dark Seerpma
DoomMalik
MagnusNiku
SlardarCopy
RubickDaze
Techiesaik
BaneRiddys
HoodwinkEkki
Game 2prediction correct48:28
Natus Vincere 68%Pipsqueak+4 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 46:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezgotthejuice
Terrorbladerincyq
Centaur Warrunnerpma
EarthshakerCopy
PuckNiku
Dark SeerMalik
HoodwinkDaze
Dark WillowEkki
Witch DoctorRiddys
Baneaik
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2